Bitcoin options release signals of recovery, bulls actively betting on the million-dollar mark

The derivatives market is sending a clear signal: after a Q4 correction, market participants are once again confident that Bitcoin can return to the $100,000 level. The shift in options positioning is especially noteworthy — long positions have replaced the previous heavy demand for downside protection, reflecting a fundamental change in market sentiment.

At the same time, the spot market is also showing positive signs. Bitcoin spot ETFs recently experienced significant net inflows, suggesting institutional investors are re-entering after the correction. As of March 1, BTC was priced at $66,780, up 1.31% in 24 hours. Although the price is still below the all-time high of $126,080, both options and capital flow data point in the same direction: a bullish recovery.

Open Interest in Options Reveals Market Sentiment, Long Positions Replace Downside Hedging

The structural change in the options market is the most direct indicator. According to Bloomberg, Bitcoin options open interest is concentrated in contracts expiring on January 30 with a strike price of $100,000. This contract pool is the largest in the options market, with a notional value more than twice that of the next most active contract — the $80,000 puts, all with the same expiry.

This asymmetric positioning reveals a tilt in market expectations. Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC trading at Wintermute, commented on this positioning, noting that while the scale isn’t extreme, the directional bias is highly consistent. More importantly, the implied volatility of longer-dated puts has significantly decreased — indicating that investors’ fears of a sharp downturn have greatly diminished.

This contrasts sharply with the scenario during the market crash at the end of 2025, when spot markets experienced heavy sell-offs and hedging demand for downside risk spiked. Today’s options market shift reflects a move from defensive to offensive sentiment.

ETF Net Inflows Trigger Institutional Reallocation, Capital Turns Positive

Institutional capital is also showing signs of recovery. Recent net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs marked the strongest single-day demand since October 2025. Such large capital flows are typically associated with increased institutional participation, and historical data suggests that ETF accumulation often coincides with short-term price rallies.

The context of this capital re-entry is particularly noteworthy. After the market crash in early October, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw massive outflows, with about $19 billion in long positions liquidated in a single day. Now, with funds flowing back in, it indicates some investors have completed their risk assessments and are repositioning after the correction.

Data on exchange fund flows further confirms this trend. Last week, net Bitcoin outflows from centralized exchanges remained stable, implying that investors are moving Bitcoin out of exchanges rather than preparing to sell. When prices are strong, this behavior is often seen as a positive sign.

Exchange Spot Reserves Bottom Out, Scarcity Supports Upside Momentum

Supply-side tightening is underway. Over the past 24 hours, approximately 12,946 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges, valued at nearly $1.2 billion. As exchange reserves decline, immediate trading supply becomes constrained. In a high-demand environment, this supply tightness typically reinforces price support.

On the technical front, Amberdata derivatives director Greg Magadini notes that Bitcoin’s recent underperformance relative to precious metals creates an opportunity to buy long-term options. He believes that in the context of gold reaching new highs and tech stocks supporting the market, Bitcoin has room for a rally.

Satraj Bambra, CEO of hybrid exchange Rails, offers a short-term outlook. He believes retesting the $100,000 to $106,000 range remains possible, but cautions that such a rebound is not yet a clear bullish trend. The real confirmation will come if Bitcoin can re-enter and sustain above $106,000 (on a weekly basis), enough to support a further challenge of the all-time high.

Options positioning analysis suggests that if upward momentum continues, Bitcoin could break through the $90,000 level more quickly. Most analysts see $105,000 as a potential short-term pause point. The key now is whether this recovery, driven by options signals, ETF inflows, and declining exchange supply, can develop into sustained upward momentum.