The US and Israel attempt to decapitate Iran's leadership, but airstrikes alone cannot overthrow the regime.

On February 28, the United States and Israel launched a large-scale military strike against Iran, targeting multiple government agencies in southern Tehran. Several government ministries and institutions in the capital were hit during the airstrikes. Iran responded with a massive retaliatory attack, striking military bases used by Israel and the United States in the Gulf region. Additionally, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar were targeted.

According to reports from Xinhua News Agency and CCTV News, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the goal of the US and Israel’s military operation was to overthrow the Iranian regime.

U.S. President Donald Trump posted a video message on social media stating that the United States was conducting a large-scale military operation in Iran, aiming to level Iran’s missile industry. Trump said Iran was developing long-range missiles that threaten the U.S., and that this attack was intended to destroy Iran’s missile industry, eliminate the Iranian Navy, and ensure that Iran could not acquire nuclear weapons. Trump also demanded that members of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps lay down their weapons, or face certain death.

According to CCTV News, early on the 28th, Israel’s preliminary assessment believed that the attempt to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi had failed. Iran had previously confirmed that both were safe. The Iranian military’s public relations department announced that Commander Amir Hatami was in good health and was actively commanding the armed forces. Earlier, Israeli media reported that Hatami had been killed in a series of Israeli attacks on Iran.

Retired U.S. Air Force Colonel Cedric Layton analyzed for U.S. media that Iran’s rapid retaliation was surprising, indicating that Iran had been preparing for such an intense response. This will test the defense system that the U.S. has established in the Middle East.

Many analysts expect this conflict to last several days and to push the Middle East toward the brink of full-scale regional war. In response to the escalating situation, The Paper interviewed four senior scholars with long-term focus on Middle Eastern affairs, both domestic and international.

Experts Interviewed:

Ali Alfoneh, Iran specialist at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington

Jin Liangxiang, Director of the Middle East Research Center at Shanghai Institute for International Studies

Ding Long, Professor at the Middle East Research Institute, Shanghai International Studies University

Wang Jin, Director of the Center for International Strategic Studies at Northwest University

Negotiations are just a pretext; the real goal is to overthrow the Iranian regime

The Paper: Why did the US and Israel choose to strike now? What role did the U.S. play?

Jin Liangxiang: The US and Israel’s military strike this time was expected. On the 26th, during nuclear negotiations, the U.S.提出了一系列伊朗无法接受的要求，导致谈判破裂。美国的要求反映了以色列的立场，而以色列的目标是长期削弱伊朗，使伊朗政权崩溃或陷入混乱，甚至希望伊朗分裂，不再威胁以色列，从而一劳永逸地解决伊朗问题。在这种情况下，谈判必然无法继续，军事打击成为必然选择。

战争主要反映以色列的利益，美国为以色列提供了巨大支持。尽管美国倾向于通过和平方式解决问题，但以色列施加了巨大压力。美国现在既是战争的参与者，也是主要支撑力量，实际上被以色列的战略绑架。

Wang Jin: From the perspectives of the U.S. and Israel, Iran’s concessions during nuclear negotiations were minimal and of limited significance. Israel’s demands were strict, the U.S. stance was relatively moderate compared to Israel, but Iran’s concessions still did not meet U.S. expectations. Currently, the military targets of the US and Israel are aimed at maximally weakening Iran’s military capabilities.

The Paper: What targets did this attack focus on? What are its characteristics?

Ding Long: The initial attack was launched by Israel, followed by the U.S., and now it has become a joint US-Israel military operation. The first wave targeted key sites in eastern and northern Tehran, including the office of the Supreme Leader, the Presidential Palace, intelligence agencies, expert meetings, and the National Interest Determination Committee—aiming for a large-scale decapitation operation to eliminate Iran’s administrative and military leadership. It is expected to last a long time, with the goal of overthrowing the Iranian regime.

Ali Alfoneh: The missiles hit Pasteur Street in Tehran—the location of the Presidential Office and the Supreme National Security Council; Qom—home to many senior religious leaders; Isfahan—the industrial hub; and Kermanshah—a Kurdish-majority city in northwest Iran. The wide range and symbolic significance of these targets indicate this is a decapitation operation targeting Iran’s leadership.

Ding Long: This attack largely reenacts the situation of the “Twelve-Day War” last June, where the U.S. first engaged in negotiations with Iran as a cover, then Israel and the U.S. used the opportunity to prepare for strikes. However, the targets and purpose of this military attack are completely different from the “Twelve-Day War.” Negotiations are just a cover; the real goal is regime change. No matter how Iran responds or what concessions it makes, military action is inevitable.

The situation may become uncontrollable

The Paper: How will Iran retaliate? Could this conflict escalate into a regional war?

Jin Liangxiang: The most likely scenario is that the US and Israel will conduct a prolonged, surgical-style strike on Iran. The scope would include government agencies, national leaders, military facilities like missile bases, and civilian infrastructure such as ports and energy facilities. Iran will retaliate against high-value targets inside Israel, and may also strike U.S. military bases in the Middle East, such as ships and warships, possibly by blockading the Strait of Hormuz to pressure the U.S. and the international community.

Ding Long: The next development depends on Iran’s speed and intensity of retaliation. Iran is prepared for a large-scale counterattack, and the outcome will depend on how the U.S. and Israel respond. It’s expected that this conflict will be larger than the last, but regime change in Iran remains unlikely.

Wang Jin: Iran’s retaliation will depend on the results of the US and Israel’s strikes. If Iran suffers heavy losses, it may quickly lose the ability to retaliate. But if Iran retains the capacity, it will target Israel, U.S. military bases in the Middle East, and U.S. carrier groups with missile strikes.

Ali Alfoneh: Once hostilities begin, the situation could spiral out of control. Iran might target energy infrastructure in the Middle East to drive up global oil prices and affect U.S. gasoline prices. The U.S. believes that applying military pressure will more easily force Iran to concede, as was seen in the “Twelve-Day War.” However, if Iran survives ongoing bombings and potential internal unrest, it might choose a different path.

Iran’s collective leadership shows resilience

The Paper: Will Iran’s regime be overthrown in the face of unprecedented U.S. strikes?

Ali Alfoneh: Trump stated in a video on Truth Social that the U.S. will focus on Iran’s remaining nuclear program, missile capabilities, industry, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps—urging the latter to lay down arms and encouraging the Iranian people to oppose the regime. In other words, Trump seems to rely more on internal opposition rather than ground invasion to change the regime. Currently, Iran’s collective leadership structure makes it less vulnerable to simple decapitation. The key issue is how Iran will respond to the joint US-Israel strikes and potential domestic unrest.

Jin Liangxiang: Iran’s regime can survive temporarily because its Islamic system has been maintained for over 40 years, and its political elite and national institutions remain relatively loyal and stable.

Ding Long: Whether Iran’s regime will fall depends on two factors: first, the speed and strength of Iran’s military response, which reflects the state of its administrative and military systems; second, whether the protest movements will gather again.

Wang Jin: Overthrowing Iran’s regime without deploying ground troops is unlikely. The effectiveness of the US and Israel’s military strikes will also be a determining factor.

Source: The Paper

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