Our country's investment in technological innovation has surpassed the OECD average! Which industries are worth paying attention to in 2026?

On February 28, the National Bureau of Statistics released the “2025 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin” (hereinafter referred to as the “Bulletin”).

The Bulletin shows that in 2025, China’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) grew by 5.0% year-on-year, with the total economic output surpassing 140 trillion yuan for the first time, successfully achieving the expected goals. High-end equipment, information technology, digital technology, and other fields developed rapidly. The core indicator measuring a country or region’s investment in scientific and technological innovation—the total social research and experimental development (R&D) expenditure—increased by 8.1% compared to the previous year, reaching 2.80% of GDP, surpassing the average level of OECD countries for the first time. The capital market was relatively active, with A-share financing on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges increasing by 833.2 billion yuan in 2025.

A reporter from Daily Economic News (hereinafter referred to as “the reporter”) noted that since early last year, high-tech sectors such as commercial spaceflight and embodied robots have received sustained high attention in the capital markets. Data from the Bulletin indicate that the supply of high-tech industries has expanded and their competitiveness has improved.

How much growth potential do sectors like commercial spaceflight and embodied robots have in 2026? Which industries along the supply chain are worth关注? The reporter conducted interviews on this topic.

By 2032, the global rocket launch service market is expected to surpass $50 billion

According to data disclosed in the Bulletin, in terms of revenue, the strategic emerging services and high-tech services sectors saw revenues grow by 9.3% and 7.9%, respectively, in 2025.

In terms of supply and demand, last year, the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 9.4% year-on-year, accounting for 17.1% of the industrial added value above designated size. The added value of industrial control computers and systems increased by 86.5%. Production of service robots, storage chips, and 3D printing equipment grew by 16.1%, 22.8%, and 52.5%, respectively. High-tech product exports increased by 13.2%.

What is the growth potential for sectors like commercial spaceflight and embodied robots in 2026?

Regarding commercial spaceflight, Sun Sijing, head of the Investment Business Department Four at China Construction Investment Corporation, told the Daily Economic News that from 2015 to 2024, global commercial spaceflight experienced rapid annual growth, reaching a scale of $612 billion in 2024, with commercial space revenue accounting for $480 billion, or 78%. From 2016 to 2024, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was 8.3%. The satellite navigation, communication, broadcasting, and remote sensing markets—products and services—are about $343 billion, accounting for approximately 71% of the commercial space market. Infrastructure and auxiliary industries, including ground stations, rocket launch services, satellite manufacturing, and insurance, totaled $137 billion, making up 29% of the market.

He stated that China’s biggest bottleneck in commercial space development currently lies in rocket launches. The global commercial space launch market is growing rapidly, with China and the U.S. dominating. In 2024, there were 263 space launches worldwide, with the U.S. completing 158 and China 68, together accounting for nearly 80% of global launch activity. The global rocket launch service market reached $16.45 billion in 2023, and is projected to surpass $50 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 13.2%.

Image source: Interviewee provided

Mass production of embodied robots may occur around 2027–2028

Regarding embodied robots, Wang Zining, Vice President of the Investment Business Department Five at China Construction Investment Corporation, told the Daily Economic News that while there is still significant growth potential in 2026, the products need to mature, and their real-world applications require further development in intelligence and autonomy. Large-scale deployment may occur around 2027–2028.

Based on shipment data, GGII (Gao Gong Robotics Industry Research Institute) reports that in 2024, domestic embodied robot sales reached 2,400 units. In 2025, shipments are expected to be about 18,000 units, an increase of over 650% from 2024. By 2026, this could further rise to 62,500 units, with the next 1–2 years in a high elasticity phase driven by mass production ramp-up. Market size forecasts by Yiou Think Tank predict that the domestic embodied robot market will reach 5.707 billion yuan, 9.326 billion yuan, and 15.09 billion yuan in 2026–2028, respectively.

Looking at the entire industry chain, embodied intelligence is pushing robots from “capable of movement” to “able to perform tasks,” with the value focus shifting toward high-value, high-barrier segments. In the short term, six-degree-of-freedom force and tactile sensors are expected to see the most significant growth, with shipments in 2025 projected to increase by over 500% year-on-year. In the medium term, dexterous hands and actuators (motors, gear reducers, lead screws) will benefit from high single-machine demand and cost reductions through mass production, offering the greatest flexibility. Long-term, “the brain” and system platforms will benefit from scene penetration and software upgrades, with the highest potential ceiling. The industry chain is expected to follow a progression of “sensor leading, execution expanding, platform enlarging.”

Which industries along the supply chain are worth关注?

Wang Zining analyzed the embodied robot industry chain in three segments:

First is the sensing segment, which has the strongest growth certainty and steepest increase.

Six-degree-of-freedom force and tactile sensors are fundamental for force control and fine manipulation. GGII data indicates that in 2025, China’s shipments of embodied robot six-degree-of-freedom force sensors are expected to reach 12,300 units, a 510.1% increase, and could exceed 460,000 units by 2030.

According to Xiangcai Securities, the sensor value in Tesla’s embodied robot BOM accounts for about 33.4%, making it one of the most valuable single components. As shipments of embodied robots increase, demand for six-degree-of-freedom force and tactile sensors will linearly grow with the overall machine. Given high technical barriers and large domestic substitution potential, this is one of the most certain short-term beneficiary sectors.

Second is the operation segment, which has the greatest development flexibility and space.

Assuming each robot is equipped with two dexterous hands, GGII estimates that in 2025, demand for dexterous hands will be about 25,000 units. As embodied robots move from small batch to large-scale penetration, demand could reach 10 million units by 2035. Huabao Securities estimates that when sales reach the million-unit level, the total robot assembly market could exceed 100 billion yuan, with linear and rotary joint assemblies each surpassing 50 billion yuan; core components like frameless torque motors, harmonic reducers, planetary roller screws, and torque sensors could each reach hundreds of billions of yuan. The execution system, characterized by high single-machine demand and high value, will expand exponentially with increased penetration, making it the most flexible segment in the medium term.

Finally, the decision-making segment, which has the highest ceiling and whose commercialization depends on scene implementation.

The “robot brain,” including controllers, embodied models, and platform systems, is key to autonomous decision-making and task generalization. This segment is software and platform-oriented, with the greatest long-term potential, but commercialization depends on real-world scene deployment and ROI validation. It is expected that with accelerated large-scale applications around 2027–2028, this segment will see more significant value realization.

Wang Zining summarized that the overall embodied intelligence industry chain shows a progressive structure driven by sensing, expanding through execution, and deepening via platform upgrades, with clear growth prospects and layered development in each sub-sector.

(Article source: Daily Economic News)