The main upward wave in the eyes of Bitcoin enthusiasts: the cycle has not yet fully played out, and the opportunity is just beginning

For years, there have been various narratives about Bitcoin, but from the perspective of deep participants, the story of Bitcoin and blockchain remains full of imagination. When the price broke through $80,000, many outsiders realized that the market was accelerating, and according to the latest data, Bitcoin has reached a historical high of $126,080, indicating that the real story is just beginning. Bitcoin enthusiasts generally agree: during a major bull cycle, there’s no need to over-predict the top.

The Advantage of Cycle Theorists: Why Veterans Are Better at Judging the Big Picture

Every four-year cycle attracts new participants, who often have technical analysis skills and market intuition that rival or even surpass those of seasoned investors. However, veterans have their unique advantages—accumulated wealth and a deep understanding of cycle patterns. The key is not to use one’s disadvantages to counter others’ advantages but to focus on the big cycle rather than short-term battles. This is the trump card of experienced investors.

In multiple bull and bear transitions, many people’s Bitcoin holdings are decreasing—some sold at high prices, others flowing into new projects. As the price of a single Bitcoin continues to rise, dilution of individual holdings becomes inevitable.

Declining Returns Don’t Mean Opportunities Disappear

If you ask a Bitcoin enthusiast whether they should still buy Bitcoin now, the answer is often “it depends.” The fundamental reason is simple: Bitcoin has evolved from a stage where it could deliver several times or even dozens of times returns into an asset similar to an inflation hedge. In this cycle, even with impressive gains, it may be difficult to outperform high-growth assets like tech stocks.

Holding a certain proportion of Bitcoin as part of a diversified portfolio is reasonable. But if you aim for excess returns (Alpha), the difficulty has greatly increased. True opportunities may appear after Bitcoin hits new highs—history shows that in each bull cycle, the rotation of altcoins often peaks right after Bitcoin reaches its all-time high. Learning to adjust your positions appropriately at this point can often yield better risk-reward ratios.

Current Position: The Major Bull Run Is Still Accelerating

Regarding Bitcoin’s current stage, market consensus is clear—it remains in the main upward wave. From daily to weekly charts, from capital inflows to on-chain activity, all data point to this conclusion. There’s no reason to rush and guess where the top is.

When the US spot ETF reopens on Monday, a new wave of institutional capital is likely to flow in. At this moment, there’s no need for complex moves—just manage risk and stay steady. Over-tracking every candle or panicking over a one- or two-day pullback is a common pitfall among market participants.

Interpreting Cycle Power: Trust in the Rules

Whether in the blockchain community or the crypto space, this industry still shines with the glow of a sunrise industry. Investors who believe in cycle patterns often make more rational decisions at key moments. When market enthusiasm truly peaks and crowds gather, it’s time to systematically consider exiting or adjusting strategies. At that point, decisions tend to be neither hasty nor greedy.

The task now is simple: stay committed to understanding cycles, maintain confidence in the industry’s prospects, and avoid being disturbed by short-term noise. In a complete bull cycle, the winners are rarely the earliest entrants or the last to exit but those who stay in sync with the cycle and dance with it.

Disclaimer: This article only reflects analytical perspectives and opinions. It does not represent any official stance of any organization. All content and conclusions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make trading decisions based on their own judgment and risk tolerance. The author and related parties are not responsible for any direct or indirect losses arising from this content.