Michael Burry's Latest Call on Palantir: Why The Big Short Investor Sees Over 60% Downside Risk

In a significant recent development, Michael Burry—the legendary investor whose prescient market calls inspired the film “The Big Short”—has publicly expressed serious concerns about Palantir Technologies’ valuation. According to his latest analysis, Burry estimates the company’s fair value at approximately $46 per share, a stark contrast to where the stock has been trading in recent weeks. This bearish assessment from one of Wall Street’s most respected contrarian voices has added fresh pressure on Palantir shares, which have already retreated considerably from their peak valuations.

Palantir’s Valuation Crisis: Burry’s Sharp Reassessment

Burry’s latest news commentary centers on fundamental questions about Palantir’s financial health. In a recent Substack post, he articulated his position bluntly: “I do not expect Palantir’s recent success to last.” His key concern revolves around the company’s elevated cost structure and what he perceives as potentially inflated profit margins—a direct challenge to the prevailing bullish narrative around the data analytics specialist.

The $46 target represents a dramatic markdown from current price levels, implying that Burry views the stock as significantly overvalued relative to its intrinsic worth. While Burry clarified that he is not actively shorting Palantir shares (ticker: PLTR), he has taken a defensive position by holding put options, allowing him to profit if the stock declines. This measured but decidedly negative stance underscores his conviction in the bearish case.

Massive Performance Divergence: Burry vs. Wall Street Consensus

What makes Burry’s latest forecast particularly noteworthy is how dramatically it diverges from mainstream analyst sentiment. According to data from Visible Alpha, eight analysts currently track Palantir, with only half recommending purchases. Even among the skeptical camp, the lowest price target stands at $180—nearly four times higher than Burry’s estimate, though still substantially below the stock’s November highs.

This divergence highlights a fundamental disagreement about Palantir’s future trajectory. The company delivered strong performance throughout 2025, propelled by growing enterprise adoption of its flagship Artificial Intelligence Platform and expanding customer engagements. Palantir’s shares more than doubled in value during 2025, capping off the heels of a remarkable 340% surge in 2024.

Market Reaction and the Bearish Cascade

Palantir’s recent price action reflects mounting investor anxiety. Following Burry’s negative commentary, the stock declined nearly 5% in a single trading session, settling around $129. Year-to-date losses have intensified considerably, with shares now trading approximately 40% below their record highs established in November. The selloff came despite a positive earnings report released earlier this month, which had initially sparked optimism before sentiment reversed.

The intensifying skepticism isn’t limited to Burry alone. A growing chorus of bearish voices has begun questioning whether Palantir’s valuation can be justified by its fundamentals, even as the company continues to generate revenue growth and expand its artificial intelligence capabilities. This collision between strong operational momentum and valuation concerns has created a precarious situation for shareholders.

What Investors Should Watch

The divergence between Burry’s outlook and Wall Street’s consensus viewpoint raises crucial questions for Palantir investors. Can the company sustain its AI Platform adoption trajectory while maintaining healthy profit margins? Will elevated costs undermine returns despite revenue growth? These remain open questions with significant implications for future share price performance. Burry’s latest analysis, whether right or wrong, has certainly amplified scrutiny around Palantir’s business model and financial sustainability.