On-chain recovery warning signals for BTC's lifeline

When all on-chain indicators in a bear market become invalid, any price rebound can only be seen as a technical correction rather than a trend reversal signal. Only when multiple indicators align or appear consecutively is there a possibility of forming a genuine trend.

Currently, BTC is still hovering around $65,000 (latest quote $65.56K), which represents the market’s psychological limit and lifeline. As long as it does not fall below this lifeline, the market still retains hope of a shallow bear. However, with key on-chain indicators like LTH-RPRL and LTH-SOPR simultaneously entering negative “underwater” zones, investors’ market sensitivity continues to rise. All these signs suggest increasing uncertainty ahead.

Professional Judgment on Rebound Signals

From an on-chain perspective, rebounds in a bear market often confuse market participants. A truly meaningful rebound requires reaching above $75,000 to be initially considered a trend reversal signal. If this rebound fails to break through this critical resistance, larger opportunities may have to wait for the next cycle.

This also explains why a simple price increase is insufficient to change the market structure—the importance of the lifeline lies in its reflection of market psychology and technical support, representing the cost basis of long-term holders and the market’s support level.

Market Conditions Indicated by On-Chain Metrics

LTH-RPRL (Long-Term Holder Relative Price Realization Line) and LTH-SOPR (Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio) weakening simultaneously into negative territory indicate that selling pressure is gradually depleting, and profit-taking behaviors by holders are being absorbed by the market. This is often characteristic of late-stage or bottom regions of a bear market.

Meanwhile, increased network activity, more on-chain transactions, and supply distribution trends showing more tokens held long-term for profit-seeking are important references for market direction. However, improvement in a single indicator is far from enough to confirm a reversal—the lifeline must be maintained, and overall signals need to work together.

Strategy Considerations: No chasing highs, but also no shorting

Given the possibility of a deep bear market, “shorting at high levels” may seem reasonable at this stage, but the risks are significant. The attitude toward BTC should be one of respect combined with cautious trading. Shorting is not necessary unless you are highly confident in your trading skills and have sufficient cash flow to withstand errors.

A wiser strategy is to wait for a clear future timing to go long—through spot holdings or low-leverage medium- to long-term positions. At that time, the trend favors the bulls, even if you are temporarily trapped, psychological resilience will be easier to maintain, and risk-reward will be more balanced. The lifeline should be protected by the bulls, not the bears.