When will SOL's rally restart after pulling back from its high to $81?

The once loud voices predicting SOL to surge to $500 have fallen silent, but this is not the end of the story. When the price dropped from its all-time high to $81, the market revealed a thought-provoking scene: institutional investors were frantically accumulating, while retail investors were rushing to exit. This stark contrast itself exposes the most genuine market signals right now.

Institutions Bottoming Out vs Retail Investors Fleeing

The data speaks for itself. PayPal has chosen to deploy PYUSD on the SOL network by default, BUIDL holdings of BlackRock have surpassed $1 billion, and Goldman Sachs has directly invested $108 million. These actions from top global financial institutions send the same clear message: they see opportunity at current levels.

In sharp contrast are retail investors’ choices. Long-term holders who have held SOL for 3-5 years, experienced the glory of SOL soaring from $8 to $260, are now cutting losses at $81. Data shows that this group’s supply has decreased by 25.5%, indicating a real cash outflow is underway.

This is the brutal reality of the market: when most people despair, smart money quietly enters; when everyone is greedy, institutions have already exited.

Technical Signals Show Oversold Conditions, Rebound or Trap?

Technical indicators are equally warning. The head and shoulders pattern has been confirmed, MACD has broken below the signal line, and the 7-day moving average has crossed below the 25-day moving average—classic signs of weakness. Most painfully, SOL’s DEX ecosystem trading volume has plummeted 20% in a week, evaporating $21.3 billion, with activity levels showing a cliff-like decline.

But here’s an interesting twist: RSI has fallen to 28.66, entering deeply oversold territory. Historical experience suggests that when extreme pessimism dominates the market, the seeds of a rebound are often already planted. Oversold conditions usually mean the price has overextended on the downside, and extreme emotions may be brewing extreme opportunities.

The current price of $81.53 has already adjusted compared to a week ago, with a 24-hour decline of -4.88%. Market fear remains high. However, analysts’ target ranges are between $50 and $59, meaning if the price truly drops there, current levels are only halfway up the mountain. The real test lies in whether this is a golden pit or just the last dip before a rebound.

Short-term Trading Opportunities and Risk Reminder

For traders seeking short-term gains, the following levels are for reference (but beware of risks):

Potential buy zone: When the price hits around $84, near the lower Bollinger Band and showing clear oversold signals, it can be a light entry point for testing.

Stop-loss: If the price falls below $82, it’s prudent to cut losses quickly to avoid further downside risk.

Target: The first resistance for a short-term rebound is around $87.69. If the price breaks through this level, consider gradually taking profits; don’t be greedy.

Ultimate question: Are you willing to buy the dip in despair? This is not just a technical question but a psychological test. SOL’s story of reaching new highs is not yet over, but to restart the upward journey from $81 requires more than confidence—it demands patience and waiting for confirmed reversal signals.