Why did BTC fall less in this cycle? Analysis of historical crashes since 2013

When we observe correction patterns in Bitcoin throughout its market cycles, an intriguing question arises: why is the current decline less severe compared to previous cycles? This phenomenon reflects the evolution of the cryptocurrency market and invites us to analyze how the severity of corrections has changed over time.

Historical Declines: How BTC Crashed in Previous Cycles

Analysis of past bear markets reveals a pattern of increasingly less aggressive corrections. During the 2013-2015 cycle, Bitcoin reached a high of $1,163 before crashing to a low of $152, recording an -87% loss. This was an extraordinarily deep drop that characterized the early stage of the market.

The next cycle, 2017-2018, showed a significant correction but less severe. The price peaked at $19,783 before falling to $3,122, representing an -84% decrease. Although still substantial, a moderating trend is beginning to emerge.

In the most recent cycle, 2021-2022, the correction continued with a trend of decreasing severity. Bitcoin reached $69,400 before retreating to $15,480, with an approximate loss of -77%. The progression is clear: 87% → 84% → 77%.

The Current Cycle: A Less Severe Drop So Far

In the present stage, Bitcoin recorded an approximate high of $126,208, while the lowest point reached has been around $59,978, representing a correction of about -53%. This figure marks a notable contrast: the current decline is significantly less deep than all previous ones in percentage terms.

With a decrease of -53%, we are witnessing a correction that barely exceeds half the magnitude of the 2021-2022 cycle (-77%). This change in the pattern of declines suggests different dynamics in the current market.

Mature Market or Warning Sign? Interpreting the Correction

There are two main interpretations to explain why fewer BTC tokens fell this time. The first theory suggests that we are witnessing the maturation of the cryptocurrency market. With greater institutional adoption, deeper liquidity, and more sophisticated participants, extreme corrections become less likely. The market has natural stabilization mechanisms that limit catastrophic falls.

The second, more cautious interpretation, is that the bear market has not yet completed its cycle. The -53% correction could be merely the first stage, and there is a possibility of further decline that could push the price to new lows. From this perspective, the current lesser severity does not guarantee that this is the cycle’s bottom.

Both hypotheses are valid, and reality could combine elements of both. What is certain is that the evolution of correction patterns reflects how Bitcoin and the crypto market continue to undergo structural transformation.