Bitcoin in a Sharp Climate: Can BTC Break the $70,000 Resistance?

February 2026 marks a delicate period for Bitcoin, with extreme volatility shaping traders’ sentiment worldwide. After reaching a record high of $126,100 at the end of 2025, the price experienced a significant correction, hitting the support zone around $60,000 in early February. Currently, BTC is trading around $65,630, gradually recovering amid a sharp macroeconomic uncertainty, while analysts closely watch the possibility of the price breaking the crucial psychological level of $70,000 in the coming weeks.

Technical Analysis in a Turbulent Environment

The current chart structure shows that Bitcoin faces a significant supply barrier in the $70,000–$71,000 zone, which has acted as consistent resistance throughout February. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the price is consolidating above the key support at $65,000, maintaining a moderate bullish tilt. For the recovery to gain momentum in such a sharp environment, it is essential that BTC closes consistently above $68,500, eliminating the possibility of a double top formation that could reverse gains.

Critical Support and Resistance Levels

Traders are monitoring three key zones that will determine the next move:

Immediate Resistances: The nearest obstacle is at $68,500, followed by secondary resistance at $69,500. The $70,000 zone carries strong psychological weight, aligning with previous rejection areas observed in mid-February.

Fundamental Supports: At the lower end, $65,077 remains a crucial level. A sustained break below this zone would open the door to a pullback toward the psychological support at $60,000, mirroring January’s movements.

Momentum Indicators: What They Reveal

The Stoch RSI (3, 3, 14, 14) is in overbought territory with a reading near 96, signaling bullish strength but also the imminent risk of a short-term technical correction. This dynamic in a sharp climate often precedes a brief pullback or sideways consolidation before the market attempts its next upward push. The lack of bullish divergence on the RSI, however, suggests that the move may sustain above immediate support levels.

Market Sentiment: Opportunity in an Uncertain Climate

Market sentiment in February 2026 shows a remarkable balance: 50% of traders remain optimistic, while 50% stay cautious. This deadlock reflects caution after the extreme volatility experienced, with the impulsive FOMO behaviors typical of market peaks having faded. Conversely, this emotional cooling is often interpreted as a solid foundation for forming a stable bottom, creating favorable conditions for sustainable rallies.

Recent data from Santiment confirms that retail hype has significantly decreased, indicating that market participants are now operating with greater discipline and awareness—characteristics of transitional environments like the current one.

Possible Scenarios for the Coming Weeks

Bullish Scenario: A firm daily close above $69,500 could trigger an impulsive move driven by liquidations toward $72,000, allowing the price to firmly recover the $70,000 level and potentially approach the $75,000 zone by the end of February.

Bearish Scenario: If Bitcoin fails to stay above $68,500, a double top formation on the 4-hour chart could develop, opening the door to a pullback toward the $64,000–$65,000 range.

Final Considerations: The Road Ahead

Bitcoin is currently in a pause and observation phase, caught between moderate bullish forces and strong technical resistance. Although the sharp market climate has challenged traders, consolidation above $65,000 keeps the bullish narrative alive. Resistance at $70,000 remains a major obstacle but not insurmountable, especially if sentiment continues its shift from fear to relief in the coming weeks. Regardless of the market direction, proper risk management and maintaining proportionate positions remain essential during periods of high uncertainty like the current sharp climate.