SOL at critical levels: Fibonacci marks the way, eventually towards $150 or a deeper decline

The price of Solana (SOL) has just touched the support zone based on the Fibonacci retracement level we’ve been monitoring on the daily chart. With a current quote of $81.41, the coin is almost at the $81.50 target we projected. Since November, our analysis indicated that the price was undergoing a wave 4 correction, which would eventually lead to this bearish movement. Now that we’ve reached this critical level, the scenario opens up in two possible directions, each with very different implications for the coming months.

Technical Structure: From Correction to Possible Scenarios

The decline from the 2025 high could complete an ABC structure acting as a broader wave (iv) within the overall pattern. However, there is another equally important possibility: that this is only wave A of a longer correction. In wave technical analysis, these distinctions are crucial because they determine the magnitude of the next move.

Currently, the white scenario (extended correction) seems slightly more likely. If this develops, SOL could eventually experience a rebound from the current levels, potentially moving back toward $150 in the coming months. This recovery movement would be significant and represent an interesting opportunity for investors paying attention to technical levels.

The Real Momentum: When to Confirm the Change?

However, it’s important not to celebrate too early. On smaller timeframes, the initial upward movement from the February 2026 low has only completed three waves. From Elliott wave theory perspective, this still does not constitute a true and robust impulse. There is still a possibility that a 1–2 setup (initial decline followed by rebound) could form, but it requires clear technical confirmation.

The first signals that the impulse is truly shifting in favor of the bulls would come with specific clean breakouts. If we see SOL decisively surpass $88, and then break the level of $91.30, that would mark the first genuine indicator that the trend is turning positive. These levels act as technical control points that could eventually validate the formation of a genuine impulse.

Risk Analysis: What You Need to Know

This analysis is purely technical and structural, not financial advice. SOL’s volatility at these Fibonacci levels remains considerable, and movements can occur rapidly in either direction. The broader market context also plays a decisive role, which could eventually accelerate or slow down the scenarios described here.

Monitoring these key levels ($88 and $91.30) in the coming periods will be essential to confirm whether we are truly witnessing the start of an upward impulse or if more consolidation lies ahead.