When the blood flows like a river, smart money has already quietly completed its布局

I recently came across a set of data that made me reflect deeply. The funds with unwavering conviction have accumulated a total of 3.48 million BTC, reaching a new high in this cycle’s history. Since the beginning of this year alone, this force has increased its holdings by 1.22 million BTC. What does this number imply? It means that even during the bloodbaths of May 2021, the Luna zeroing, and the FTX collapse, smart money’s buying was nowhere near as aggressive as it is now.

More importantly, they are doing all this at higher price levels than during the “desperate moments.” While retail investors panic and sell off, the truly influential funds are already sweeping at higher prices. This difference is like two worlds.

The Myth of Bottom-Fishing: Accumulation Is the Game of Smart Money

What do the so-called “diamond hands” institutions and steadfast holders see through?

I studied their operational logic carefully and found a key cognitive difference: they never bet on “precise bottom-fishing.” It sounds counterintuitive, but anyone who understands the market knows—top-tier players don’t play the “finding the bottom” game; they play the “continuous accumulation” game.

The essence of accumulation is simple: as long as the price is reasonable, keep buying, and swallow all excess selling pressure in the market. Like a filter, once activated, it continuously filters out panic sell-offs until the supply dries up, and the price naturally finds support. That’s when the bottom truly forms.

From a spatial perspective, we are indeed approaching the historical bottom zone. In the last bear market, BTC dipped to around $17,000, eventually stabilizing near $15,000. Looking at today’s price, we are not far from that range. Currently, BTC hovers around $65,600. Although much higher than the bottom, this demonstrates that smart money “does not expect to buy at the lowest point.”

The Tragedy of Time: More Cruel Than Price

But here’s a harsh reality: even if the space is in place, the test of time has just begun.

It took a full 7 months from the bottom to the market’s true reversal in the last cycle. What does 7 months mean? It means countless people’s confidence will gradually erode until they finally break mentally. This is the real reason most retail investors can never catch the bottom.

They imagine the bottom as a clear point, but in reality, it’s a painful process. During this process, you will experience:

• Boring sideways consolidation
• Repeated disappointments and weak rebounds
• Desperate sell-offs when hope is lost

Ironically, just when you can’t endure anymore and cut your last holdings in pain, the real bull market begins to show its fangs. The market’s cruelest mechanism is this: it wears down your will over time, then rewards those who endure until the end with explosive gains.

The Quiet Reshuffling of Chip Distribution

Now, let’s look at what’s happening to the market’s chip structure.

When 3.48 million BTC are firmly held by this group unwilling to sell easily, the entire market’s distribution has fundamentally changed. Chips once scattered among various investors are gradually concentrating into the hands of steadfast holders. This process may seem slow, but it is rewriting the future script.

Imagine this scenario: when market sentiment finally turns positive, those retail investors who bottom-fished during the bloodbath have already been washed out through repeated cycles. What remains are the diamond hands with unwavering faith in the future. At this point, supply has severely shrunk, while demand begins to awaken. How will the price move then?

This is why every bear market is the incubator for the next bigger bull run. Because the optimization of chip structure means the quality of market participants is improving, and the chips easily manipulated by panic are decreasing.

The Final Question: Are You Ready?

Returning to the original question—how far is the bottom?

From a spatial perspective, it’s very close. From a time perspective, it may still require months of patience. But the real question isn’t how far away it is, but:

Are you prepared to stay greedy when others panic? Can you hold steady through long sideways periods? Are you willing to trade time for ultimate wealth?

The reason why “smart money” increases their positions during bloodbaths is because they understand the essence of the game: time is the enemy of retail investors but a friend to the farsighted.

The gap in cognition ultimately translates into a gap in wealth. Those still asking “where is the bottom” today are, more than anything, looking for an excuse to avoid the test of time. True smart money has long changed their question to: “How much more can I buy?”

That’s where the difference lies. And perhaps, that difference is the distance between you and financial freedom.