Iran's Oil Export Capacity at Risk: CSIS Outlines Four Escalation Scenarios for Global Energy Crisis

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a leading American think tank, has published a detailed analytical assessment revealing how Iran could severely disrupt global energy supplies in response to regional military actions. The report examines Iran export volumes and the cascading effects across global oil markets, presenting a sobering picture of energy infrastructure vulnerability in the Persian Gulf.

How Much Oil Does Iran Export Annually?

Iran ranks among the world’s largest oil producers, though international sanctions have historically constrained its export capacity. The CSIS analysis emphasizes that even temporary disruptions to Iran’s oil export operations could trigger dramatic market reactions. Understanding Iran’s baseline export volumes is crucial for assessing the severity of the four disruption scenarios outlined in the report.

The strategic focus of the analysis centers on what happens if Iran’s ability to export oil comes under threat—either through direct attacks or blockades of key shipping routes. Tehran’s response options depend heavily on whether their export infrastructure remains operational or faces destruction.

The Four Energy Crisis Scenarios: From Regional Conflict to Global Chaos

CSIS presents four escalating scenarios, each with different implications for global oil prices:

Scenario One: Blockade of Iranian Oil Exports If the United States or Israel attempts to disrupt Iran’s oil export operations by blockading Kharg Island or intercepting oil tankers, global crude prices would surge by $10 to $12 per barrel. However, this scenario carries unpredictable risks for American allies in the region, as Iran would likely retaliate asymmetrically.

Scenario Two: Iranian Disruption of the Strait of Hormuz Iran possesses the capability to obstruct one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints using drones, missiles, and naval mines. This scenario could halt the passage of 18 million barrels of oil daily, forcing shipping operators to suspend operations and triggering sharp oil price spikes across global markets.

Scenario Three: Direct Attacks on Iran’s Oil Facilities If Iran’s own oil infrastructure comes under attack, crude prices would likely exceed $100 per barrel. Long-term supply cuts from damaged production and export facilities would compound the immediate price shock, while Iran would almost certainly escalate its response measures.

Scenario Four: Iran’s Regional Oil Infrastructure Attack (Most Probable) The CSIS analysis identifies this as the highest-risk scenario: Iran directly targeting oil fields and export terminals of Persian Gulf littoral countries. In this case, oil prices would surge above $130 per barrel, with both oil and natural gas exports from the region potentially halted entirely.

The Strait of Hormuz Bottleneck: When Iran Controls Global Oil Flows

One of the report’s most striking conclusions concerns the vulnerability of alternative energy corridors. The Strait of Hormuz remains the world’s dominant oil transit route, and attempts to bypass it face severe practical limitations:

Saudi Arabia: Can reroute less than half of its oil exports through alternative pathways, leaving significant vulnerability.

United Arab Emirates: While some exports transit through the Port of Fujairah, approximately one-third of UAE’s oil would face effective blockade if the Strait closes.

Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar: These producers lack alternative export routes entirely. Any closure of the Strait of Hormuz would reduce their oil exports to zero.

This geographic reality underscores why disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz or Iran’s oil infrastructure represent existential threats to global energy security. The limited redundancy in Persian Gulf export infrastructure means that even localized conflicts could cascade into worldwide supply crises and economic disruption.

The CSIS analysis demonstrates that Iran’s strategic position—commanding chokepoint geography and possessing sufficient military capability—gives Tehran significant leverage in any confrontation scenario. Understanding these interconnected risks remains essential for policymakers and energy markets assessing geopolitical stability in the Middle East.