IEA lowers oil demand growth forecast; surplus supply estimate remains unchanged

The International Energy Agency (IEA) downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 in its February “Oil Market Report,” but the estimate for a significant oversupply remains largely unchanged. The agency expects demand to increase by 850,000 barrels per day this year, down from the 930,000 barrels per day predicted in the January report, citing that price increases in the first few weeks of the year have “weighed on the growth outlook.” The new demand growth forecast by the IEA brings total demand in 2026 to 104.87 million barrels per day. The agency states that demand will peak in the fourth quarter, exceeding 106 million barrels per day. The variability of these forecasts is evident — in April 2025, the IEA’s initial estimate for 2026 demand growth was only 690,000 barrels per day. Their estimates continue to differ significantly from those of OPEC’s research department, which this week projected that 2026 oil demand will grow by 1.38 million barrels per day, reaching 106.52 million barrels per day.