On February 25, 2026, JPMorgan's Commodities Research Team released a major forecast: spot gold will increase by 22% from current levels by the end of 2026, potentially reaching $6,300 per ounce, while the long-term target price is raised to $4,500 per ounce. This prediction is based on dual demand drivers: sustained central bank gold purchases (in 2025, global central banks bought approximately 863 tons, with an estimated high of 755 tons in 2026) and continued investor allocation demand (in Q3 2025, investor and central bank total gold demand was about 980 tons, over 50% higher than the average of the previous four quarters, equivalent to $109 billion in capital). On the supply side, structural scarcity is expected, with 80 gold mines worldwide projected to deplete production by 2028. This super cycle in gold offers profound insights for the crypto market: over the past six months, gold has risen 51% while Bitcoin has fallen 43%, with a divergence of up to 94 percentage points, and correlation dropping to the lowest since the 2022 FTX incident. However, the Bitwise report notes that Granger causality tests show gold often leads Bitcoin by 4-7 months, and the Bitcoin/gold ratio is undervalued by 2 standard deviations relative to global money supply (currently about 16 ounces/BTC vs. a model implied fair value of 50 ounces/BTC). Historically, such undervaluation last occurred in 2015, indicating significant upside potential. JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou even speculates that if Bitcoin volatility drops to the level of gold, its price could soar to $266,000. Positive signals are already emerging: on February 25, spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $258 million (reversing five consecutive weeks of $3.8 billion outflows), Coinbase premium index turned positive for the first time since January 15, indicating US institutional buying is returning. Although QCP Capital founder pointed out that recent divergence reflects liquidity changes driven by position unwinding and leverage rather than a failure of long-term narrative, Bitwise emphasizes that during periods of uncertainty, investors tend to rely on “muscle memory” and turn to gold. Once risk appetite returns and on-chain factors dissipate, Bitcoin’s pricing should catch up with macro expectations. The core of this valuation reappraisal is that Bitcoin is transitioning from a “speculative tool” to a “strategic asset,” with ETF introduction making it a permanent fixture in portfolios, shifting holder profiles from “casino regulars” to “asset allocators.” When gold surges to $6,300, whether Bitcoin can re-enter the narrative of “digital gold” depends on the end of miner capitulation, continued ETF capital inflows, and the formation of macro catalysts.