Various Calls for Bitcoin Growth in 2025: The Market Between Hope and Skepticism

Amid Bitcoin price fluctuations, the market is experiencing a period of heightened uncertainty. Economist Peterson developed his own forecasting method based on analyzing positive months in a 24-month cycle, leading him to declare the start of a sustained growth on December 22. However, this forecast is not the only call for BTC price movement in 2025, and market data paints a more complex picture.

Peterson’s Methodology vs. Actual Price History

Peterson’s calculations are based on identifying trend reversal points through analysis of monthly return periodicity. According to his logic, December should be the month to start the rally. However, statistics provided by CoinGlass show a different reality in 2025. Bitcoin increased in January, April, May, June, July, and September — a total of six months. During the rest of the year, the price steadily declined.

Interestingly, there is a historical pattern: November has traditionally been the best month for Bitcoin since 2013, with an average return of 41.13%. Traders on the Polymarket platform are skeptical about forecasts for future months — the probability of the best monthly return in December is estimated at only 17%, while November has slightly higher odds (18%).

Market Sentiment: From Extremes to Balance

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows volatility in market sentiment. At a level of 9 (extreme fear), this indicator signals investor panic. Currently, BTC is trading at $66,210, down 2.35% daily, which also confirms ongoing uncertainty.

Santiment’s analysis platform has identified an interesting phenomenon: the number of social media posts with Bitcoin price forecasts is decreasing. Experts interpret this as a return to a neutral landscape, viewing this shift as a healthy sign of normalization. “Calls to push Bitcoin to $150,000–200,000, as well as to $50,000–100,000, are becoming less frequent,” note Santiment researchers.

However, amid this emotional correction, fundamental network activity raises concerns. Transaction volumes, active addresses, and network growth rates are showing a steady decline.

Capital Outflows from Bitcoin Funds as a Sign of Market Hesitation

Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to Bitcoin price continue to record net outflows for the fifth consecutive week. Over this period, investors have withdrawn approximately $3.8 billion. In the last week alone, total outflows from Bitcoin ETFs amounted to about $315.9 million. This trend indicates that despite various analyst calls to buy, institutional investors are cautious and are waiting for new positions in 2025.