OP in a critical situation: from the perspective of pressure on monetization and price after the decimal point

Optimism is currently experiencing a period of acute stress. A key client, Base — the project’s largest revenue source — announced a shift of infrastructure from OP Stack to its own “unified stack.” This means future releases for nodes will be made through the Base repository, not Optimism. The market reacted immediately: OP hit a historic low (ATL), and funding dropped to extremely low levels. From a price dynamics perspective, the asset fell to levels where quotes are considered in decimal points — current level $0.13 compared to a historic maximum of $4.84.

Base separates: why this threatens the entire project architecture

The Base team emphasizes in their official statement that they are moving from a “multi-component + dependency on partners” model to their own technological cycle. This decision is significant: the project takes control over releases, upgrades, and data packaging — essentially over all development of the protocol.

For Optimism, this means losing “platform influence” over one of the largest Layer 2 solutions. Moreover, Base was not just a client but a true economic driver of the entire OP Stack ecosystem, providing a substantial part of the project’s incoming revenue.

Supernet facing the risk of segmentation

Systemically important Layer 2 solutions for Optimism include OP Mainnet, Unichain, World Chain, Soneium, and others, united under the Superchain brand. Market participants now interpret Base’s separation as a signal of potential risks:

• decreased future cash flows for the Optimism Foundation
• reduced role of OP in ecosystem coordination
• the possibility of a domino effect, where other L2s follow the leading client

This explains the scale of the sell-off: investors are overestimating the project’s viability amid erosion of its economic model.

Unlock in late February: additional pressure amid uncertainty

On February 28, 32.2 million OP are expected to unlock, approximately 1.52% of the total market cap. While not critical in absolute terms, this unlock adds another pressure factor at a time when trust in the project is already seriously shaken.

Support mechanics: monthly buybacks versus capital outflows

In response to crisis signals, the Optimism Foundation launched a buyback program in January. Token holders approved a proposal to direct 50% of incoming Superchain revenue to monthly OP repurchases. The voting result was decisive: 84.4% in favor, with a 12-month pilot approval.

This is a standard and market-understood support mechanism through demand creation. However, with Base’s separation, buyback volumes will be significantly lower. Nonetheless, the support base remains.

A separate point: Base will continue working with Optimism as a client of the OP Enterprise program, a paid corporate support service for large clients. This indicates ongoing working relationships and no doubts about the quality of Optimism’s services.

Reassessment of trust: today we trade not on technology but on faith in monetization

Current price movements reflect not an assessment of the project’s technical viability but the market’s reevaluation of future revenue-generating ability and its position within the decentralized computing ecosystem.

Portfolio position: two different ownership scenarios

Currently, OP is in two investment portfolios. The first is a spot portfolio with “free” tokens received after the September 2022 spot deal, with a final profit of +139.53%. This position was closed at the end of January 2023 at $2.243 (vs. entry at $0.945), locking in profit while leaving the main deposit for long-term holding.

The second purchase was made in October 2024 for a portfolio copying spot trades. 19 assets, 8 of which (including OP at an entry price of $0.4414) were bought immediately after the dump on October 10. This portfolio now shows a drawdown of -62.83%, with OP specifically at -68.12%.

The strategy for both positions remains the same: waiting for a full liquidity surge into quality altcoins with subsequent revaluation.

Technical picture: from broken patterns to target levels

In January, OP broke the “Bullish Wedge” pattern, which previously indicated potential rebound. The break became highly probable after January 25, when the asset returned to a stable downtrend on the daily timeframe.

Basic target levels have been identified, and today the only additional target on the weekly timeframe is $0.1410 — the minimum level from the October dump. There are no lower targets on the daily indicator, as in the current coordinate system they all lie below zero. This means: either we reverse from the bottom with a recovery, or the devaluation continues with new figures after the decimal point.

By September, the price broke out of the global “Bullish Wedge” lasting a year and a half. Currently, the quote is “stuck” at the bottom, which is natural for a accumulation or complete rethinking of value phase.

On the four-hour timeframe, two Strong signals have already formed, offering chances for a rebound or recovery impulse, but this is not a guarantee of a reversal. Confirmation from upward trends on smaller timeframes (hourly, 15-minute) is needed.

In summary: from a technical analysis perspective, OP is in a critical zone where each new resistance level becomes decisive for restoring trust. Prices in the decimal points after zero are not the bottom but a warning that the market is overestimating the entire value architecture of the project.