Is the panda sleeping peacefully? Bitcoin's consecutive months of decline and hidden signals

The Bitcoin market is currently approaching a sensitive threshold: if February closes in the red, it will be the fifth consecutive month of a downward trend. This is not just a statistical figure but also a sign of a market under sustained selling pressure, weak rebounds, and insufficient depth to change the trend structure. With data showing BTC has decreased by 19.65% over the past year, this downward pressure feels more real than ever. However, what’s interesting is that by examining how the market operates during this decline, we can see more complex signs beyond mere numbers.

Market Structure: When the Bear Structure Still Has an Appetite

The continuous selling activity in recent months reflects a clear defensive stance of capital, especially after a hot rally earlier. It can be said that the bear structure is still “gnawing” at price levels, maintaining relentless pressure but not yet triggering sharp sell-offs.

More intriguingly, historical market data shows that prolonged decline sequences—comparable to the longest downturn during the 2018–2019 bear market—rarely end quietly. Periods of such “appetite” in the bear structure often set the stage for a significant rebound, with upward moves lasting months as liquidity returns and investor sentiment is relieved.

Beneath the Calm Surface: Fundamentals Still Strong

While prices face selling pressure, Bitcoin’s fundamental indicators remain positive. Spot Bitcoin ETF funds currently hold over $100 billion in assets, clearly reflecting strong long-term investor demand. Institutional capital continues to maintain a presence, even if not chasing prices as aggressively as in previous phases.

Another notable sign comes from the behavior of wallets holding 10–100 BTC—mid-tier investors. This group is actively accumulating, showing clear “buying” behavior at low levels. This suggests that although the market appears weak on the surface, underlying forces are quietly building a foundation for upcoming volatility.

From History to Future: When the Bear Structure Changes Strategy

On the policy front, the CLARITY Act for digital asset markets is still being pushed through the Senate, with a potential passage in April. This is a positive factor for the legal framework surrounding Bitcoin and digital assets in general.

In terms of market psychology, this is a phase where the public narrative may quiet down, but the long-term structure is quietly being rebuilt. Bitcoin history shows that periods of “dazed” and heavy bear structures—when seemingly nothing happens—are often when conditions are being arranged for a major shift. When the bear structure finally changes strategy, these subtle signals will reveal their true impact.