First Capital Futures: U.S. Siphoning Continues, Copper Market Rebounds Again

According to media reports, Chinese mining personnel at some mines in Myanmar have begun emergency evacuation operations yesterday, expected to be completed by tomorrow. (MNTJP/MNDAA) detained Chinese miners and administrative staff from February 21 to 23, confiscating their weapons. After several days of negotiations between the Chinese government and local authorities, most personnel have been released, but one Chinese government official remains detained.
The Monywa Copper Mine in Sagaing Province is an important investment project by a state-owned Chinese enterprise. The project is relatively small, with an expected annual output of 20,000 tons in 2026, and its impact remains uncertain. Additionally, from January to February 2026, U.S. copper imports exceeded 300,000 tons, more than doubling compared to the same period in 2025, indicating that the siphoning effect on copper in the U.S. continues.
Although the Section 232 investigation has not immediately imposed tariffs on copper, the market still exhibits siphoning effects. There are two main reasons: the escalating U.S. strategic mineral reserve plans and the looming threat of tariffs on copper after 180 days, which still hangs over the market. The market is gradually shifting focus from inventory accumulation in China to a broader macro narrative (2024-2025 logic), and prices have begun to recover from previous suppression. Attention should be paid to China’s electrolytic copper export data for January and February and the domestic recovery situation, maintaining a cautious optimism. (First Capital Futures)