Understanding Bitcoin Cycles: One Bull-Bear Cycle, Three Stages

In Bitcoin's market, there is always a recurring, repeatedly validated cycle pattern that few truly understand. It is not an exact daily mechanical rule nor does each rise and fall have identical amplitude, but its "roughly one year of decline and bottoming, followed by nearly three years of rising bull market" framework is remarkably stable.

This cycle does not rise or fall out of thin air; behind it lies a clear market reshuffling logic and capital behavior. A complete market cycle essentially consists of three core stages:

Stage One: Clearing the Market, Separating the Wheat from the Chaff
The market enters a sustained decline mode, with the main goal being "clearing out the old." Highly leveraged speculative funds chasing gains are thoroughly washed out, and retail investors with fragile psychology and inability to hold onto their positions are forced to cut losses during the prolonged downturn. When price volatility narrows and trading volume gradually stabilizes, it indicates that the floating supply has been mostly cleared, and the market bottom is near.

Stage Two: Quiet Bottoming, Hidden Accumulation
The sharp decline comes to a halt, but the market does not immediately rally. Instead, it enters a long period of sideways consolidation. At this time, market sentiment is overwhelmingly pessimistic, with most people losing confidence in the bull market and even paying less attention to Bitcoin. Yet, it is precisely during this quiet phase that institutional and large-cap smart money quietly accumulates at low levels, silently completing the bottom layout.

Stage Three: Trend Taking Off, Bull Market Begins
The gloom of decline is completely dispelled, and prices start to form a rising structure with successive waves surpassing previous highs. As the profit-taking effect spreads, outside capital gradually enters, market enthusiasm continues to rise, and once the trend is fully confirmed, the market breaks through historical highs, officially entering the main upward wave of the bull market.

Returning to the current market, we have completed a full downtrend cycle. The risk from high leverage has been mostly released, and market sentiment remains subdued and pessimistic. The most critical question now is not guessing whether prices will rise or fall, but clarifying the current situation:
Have we already ended the decline and officially entered the bottoming phase where smart money quietly accumulates? Or is the bottom structure not yet formed, and we still need some time to grind before the next move?

To see the true market turning point clearly, you don’t need to listen to rumors—just focus on four most genuine trend signals:
1. The lows are continuously rising, and during corrections, prices no longer break below previous lows;
2. Effective breakthroughs of resistance levels, standing firm at key pressure points, without repeatedly falling back;
3. Steady volume-driven upward movement, with real capital entering rather than empty price pushes without volume;
4. Strong support during corrections, with gentle pullbacks after rises, and quick absorption of sell-offs by funds.

This cycle logic is never meant as a prediction tool to gamble on "rise tomorrow or next week," but rather as a compass to help us anchor market phases.

The bear market's decline and grinding will wear down most people to give up; meanwhile, the dividends of the bull market are always reserved for those who can endure and see the trend clearly.

From the current trend, the market appears to be at a critical point of cycle transition rather than the start of a new collapse. But always remember: the market trend is the ultimate answer; all theories are just references. Only the price itself is the most genuine signal.
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