Increased revenue and higher profits, where is the "gold content" of Green Tea Group (6831.HK)'s profit alert?

At the beginning of 2026, the catering industry has welcomed a long-awaited warmth. As consumer scenarios continue to recover and various policies to stimulate consumption gradually take effect, industry confidence is showing a clear bottoming-out and rebound trend. According to a recent research report from CITIC Securities, the catering revenue growth rate in Q4 2025 has increased to 3.0%, accelerating by 1.6 percentage points compared to Q3; entering 2026, under the dual effects of offsetting the Spring Festival and low base effects, signals of marginal recovery in the catering sector are becoming increasingly clear.

Amid the overall positive industry outlook, the leader in casual Chinese dining, Green Tea Group, has delivered an impressive performance. On February 24, the company released a positive profit forecast, attracting widespread market attention.

In a time when the catering industry is generally experiencing cost pressures and efficiency battles, this profit increase of over 30% not only validates its forward-looking strategy of “value-for-money + refined management” but also injects strong confidence into its chain restaurant track. As industry competition shifts from simple store expansion to deep operational efficiency, Green Tea Group, with its solid fundamentals, is steadily entering a high-quality recovery phase.

1. Scale and Efficiency Resonance, Store Network Unlocks Structural Benefits

The announcement shows that in 2025, the company’s revenue increased by approximately RMB 6.96 billion to RMB 11.74 billion from RMB 38.38 billion in 2024; net profit is expected to be between RMB 4.60 billion and RMB 5.08 billion, up 31.4% to 45.1% from RMB 3.50 billion in 2024.

What’s noteworthy in this profit forecast is not just the growth in profit figures, but the qualitative change in the underlying growth logic.

In the past, expansion by catering companies often led to profit dilution, i.e., “more revenue but not more profit.” However, the expected increase in revenue and net profit for Green Tea Group shows a healthy transmission relationship, indicating that its profit growth is driven not merely by increasing store numbers but by a “dual engine” of network expansion and improved existing store efficiency.

A deeper look at its store strategy reveals that Green Tea Group is adopting a very pragmatic and efficient approach to navigate industry cycles.

On one hand, the company has not blindly expanded for scale but has adopted a “small store + high floor efficiency” densification strategy. According to public reports, Green Tea has focused on developing small restaurants with a construction area of 300 square meters or less in recent years. These stores, with higher table turnover and better cost structures, have become the main type of expansion. This “divide and conquer” approach allows for more flexible entry into prime commercial locations while effectively controlling initial investment and operational costs.

On the other hand, the company has demonstrated remarkable resilience in existing market operations. Looking at data from the first half of 2025, Green Tea Group’s overall table turnover rate increased from 3.05 times/day in the first half of 2024 to 3.10 times/day. The increase in table turnover offsets slight fluctuations in per capita spending, enabling same-store performance to outperform industry averages.

This is rooted in the company’s commitment to a “high value-for-money” positioning— in an increasingly rational consumer environment, high-frequency consumption provides stable support for store profitability. When scale effects enhance procurement bargaining power and refined operations reduce costs, their convergence on the profit statement results in a “more revenue, more profit” outcome.

2. Domestic Quality Improvement and Overseas Breakthroughs Build a Dual Growth Curve

Supporting the steady operation of hundreds of domestic stores is a “third-generation supply chain system” that continuously releases energy, with core architecture comprising “leading suppliers + digital cold chain + smart kitchens.”

Through deep partnerships with top suppliers like Gu Chuan Food and Chia Tai Group, and digital dispatching across eight national distribution centers, Green Tea Group ensures ingredient freshness and standardized taste while leveraging scale procurement to build a solid cost moat.

Taking the signature dish “Green Tea Roast Chicken” as an example, from order-based breeding to standardized cooking with smart ovens, each step is data-controlled and quality-consistent. This efficient supply chain system provides reliable support for stable operations of mainland stores and offers tangible backing for its high value-for-money positioning.

If mainland market cultivation is the “ballast stone,” then overseas expansion is becoming the “new engine” for valuation growth.

Since opening its first store in Hong Kong in 2024, Green Tea Group has accelerated its globalization. To date, it has established 15 stores in Hong Kong and Southeast Asia. These overseas stores generate per-store revenue and profit scales 2.5 to 3 times those of mainland stores, with Hong Kong stores averaging monthly revenue of HKD 1.5 to 2 million and operating profit margins exceeding 15%.

Behind high returns is the company’s unique “fusion cuisine” gene, which is releasing differentiated value—its menu, rooted in “Chinese-Western fusion” since inception, naturally adapts across cultures, lowering taste barriers for entry into overseas markets. In Hong Kong, Green Tea Group has used collaborations with Michelin-starred chefs to develop localized dishes, balancing “global standards” with “local adaptation,” further easing cultural and taste barriers in foreign expansion.

More importantly, years of operational standards and store management systems accumulated domestically have become a “software asset” that can be replicated overseas. The long-standing challenge of standardization and scale in Chinese cuisine internationalization has been effectively addressed within Green Tea’s mature operational framework.

It’s clear that Green Tea Group has built a dual growth engine: leveraging domestic market scale and efficiency as the foundation, and high-growth, high-profit overseas markets as a valuation driver—both supporting each other to propel the company into a new growth cycle.

3. Conclusion

The warm wind isn’t something to wait for; it’s for those who are prepared.

Green Tea Group’s profit forecast ultimately reflects two key successes: first, using supply chain and operational efficiency to truly embed “value-for-money” into its management; second, taking steady steps—refining domestic stores and beginning to see returns from overseas efforts—walking on two legs makes the path more solid.

The catering industry has never lacked opportunities; what’s missing are players who can do things meticulously and spend money wisely. Green Tea Group proves that when the tide recedes, those who can stand firm are not the loudest, but the most solid in fundamentals.

The story ahead is straightforward—continue to maintain the domestic core, and sustain high growth overseas. As long as both lines stay steady, Green Tea Group will truly master its own rhythm of growth.