Samson Mow speaks out again: Is the logic of Bitcoin reaching one million dollars by 2026 valid?

There is a type of trader in the crypto community whose historical prediction track record has garnered significant attention. Recently, industry top figures like seasoned maxi and MicroStrategy advocate Samson Mow reiterated their stance, predicting Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2026. Although this forecast is bold—requiring a 15-fold increase from the current approximately $677,000—the underlying logic warrants in-depth analysis.

Why Samson Mow’s Perspective Is Taken Seriously Due to His Track Record

As a well-known Bitcoin advocate, Samson Mow has demonstrated keen market insights through multiple key predictions over the past few years. From accurately timing Bitcoin’s cycle highs, predicting explosive growth after halvings, to precisely touching extreme price points, and shifting narratives from inscriptions to institutional buy-ins after the NFT craze waned, his accuracy has earned him considerable credibility within the community. In contrast, some of his earlier controversial views are now being reassessed, which explains why his new prediction has sparked widespread discussion on X (Twitter).

Four Main Supports Behind the $1 Million Prediction

Accelerating Institutional and Sovereign Fund Inflows

Signals such as Abu Dhabi capital entering the market and the continued inflow into the iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) are evident. Currently, Bitcoin ETF fund inflows have hit record highs, indicating growing acceptance among traditional institutions for Bitcoin asset allocation. Samson Mow’s outlook is based on this accelerating institutional adoption trend.

Supply Tightening Post-Halving and Demand Explosion

The upcoming Bitcoin halving will reduce new supply by 50%. Meanwhile, demand factors such as national reserves, AI-driven on-chain transaction activity, and ongoing ETF absorption collectively may widen the supply-demand gap. This fundamental imbalance supports upward price movement.

Macro Environment’s Certainty and Support

The persistent rise in dollar debt burdens and ongoing inflation expectations provide long-term narrative support for Bitcoin as an “alternative currency” and hedge asset. Unlike other commodities, Bitcoin’s scarcity model is mathematically clearer, a core point repeatedly emphasized by Samson Mow and other maxis.

Extended Cycle Hypothesis

The traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle may be lengthened in this market cycle. The initial expectation of a post-2024 halving surge might extend into 2025, potentially reaching new heights in 2026. Although this “extended cycle” breaks from traditional patterns, it is based on the higher institutional participation and liquidity present today, making it logically consistent.

How Mainstream Analysts View This Prediction

It’s worth noting that while Samson Mow’s million-dollar forecast is bold, it’s not an isolated voice. Traditional financial institutions like Bernstein and Standard Chartered project Bitcoin to reach between $150,000 and $300,000 by the end of 2026; Cathie Wood and ARK are more conservative, expecting $1 million by 2030; industry leaders like Michael Saylor and Arthur Hayes have repeatedly expressed the view that “$1M is inevitable.” This indicates a certain consensus within the industry on the $1 million target, with differences mainly in timing. Recently, Eric Trump also reiterated that “based on Bitcoin’s historical average annual growth of 70%, breaking $1 million is not an issue.”

The Dilemma Facing Investors

For investors tracking such forecasts, the current environment presents asymmetric opportunities and risks. If one accepts the logic of top analysts like Samson Mow, entering at current lows or adding moderate positions could be a long-term profit opportunity. However, it’s crucial to remain aware that all predictions carry uncertainties—regulatory changes, macro black swan events, technical issues, and other factors could disrupt current expectations. A rational approach is to treat these forecasts as reference frameworks rather than absolute signals, participating within a risk-controlled scope.

In summary, Samson Mow’s prediction of Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2026 is supported by solid logic and reflects a certain industry consensus on long-term trends. However, whether it will come true ultimately remains to be seen through time and market validation.