Circle stock price breaks $90: Bernstein and Mizuho Bank interpret the decoupling of stablecoins and market independence logic

Traditional financial analysts are rewriting valuation models for the largest stablecoin issuer in the crypto world. On February 26, 2026, Circle’s stock briefly surged past $90, reaching its highest point since November last year. Behind this rally was not Bitcoin price volatility but Wall Street’s re-pricing of a fundamental shift in Circle’s business structure. Bernstein asserts that its valuation has significantly decoupled from crypto market trends, while Mizuho Bank highlights substantial trading revenue from prediction markets like Polymarket. This article objectively traces the causal chain of this event, dissects mainstream market views, and examines the authenticity and potential risks of the decoupling narrative.

Event Overview: Valuation Reassessment Driven by Better-than-Expected Earnings

On February 26, Eastern Time, Circle’s stock briefly climbed above $90 during trading, then stabilized around $87. This spike was directly triggered by the company’s Q4 earnings report released the previous day. The report showed that Circle exceeded market expectations in key metrics such as trading revenue and adjusted EBITDA, leading to a roughly 30% single-day increase. Soon after, top investment banks Bernstein and Mizuho Bank released research reports, each presenting different perspectives on Circle’s future prospects, further boosting market bullishness.

From Stablecoin Issuer to Diversified Revenue Platform

To understand the deeper implications of this stock movement, it’s necessary to trace Circle’s business evolution:

• Early Stage: Circle’s core revenue heavily depended on interest income from USDC reserves. When the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, its income rose; when rate cut expectations grew, its valuation logic faced challenges.
• 2025 Strategic Expansion: The company consciously diversified beyond interest income, launching the Circle Payments Network, enterprise stablecoin management solution Arc, and exploring frontier areas like Agentic Payments.
• 2025–2026 Cumulative Growth: USDC circulation continued to grow, with a compound annual growth rate of 40%. More importantly, the proportion of USDC held directly on Circle’s platform increased from 14% in Q3 to 17% in Q4, indicating expansion of its direct-to-user business. Additionally, as a super validator on the Canton network, Circle began earning new types of transaction income such as blockchain rewards.
• February 26, 2026: The day after Q4 earnings, analyst reports flooded in, and the market recognized that Circle’s revenue structure had undergone a substantial change, prompting a sharp rise in stock price.

The Moment of Structural Change in Revenue Composition

Bernstein explicitly states in its report that Circle’s rally is clearly decoupled from crypto market trends. This conclusion is supported by specific data:

• Growth in Trading Revenue: While traditional reserve interest income remains foundational, other sources like super validator rewards are rapidly rising. Circle expects this segment to grow from $110 million in 2025 to $170 million in 2026.
• Structural Changes in USDC Circulation: Total USDC supply continues to grow, but its distribution is optimizing. The proportion of USDC directly deposited on Circle’s platform is increasing, implying higher user stickiness and potential fee income.
• Profitability Resilience: Even after excluding macro interest rate impacts, Circle’s adjusted EBITDA remains strong, demonstrating high marginal profit margins in its new business lines.

Dual Outlook: Optimism and Caution

Despite the positive stock performance, analysts’ focus and conclusions vary subtly, reflecting differing market expectations for Circle’s future.

View A (Bernstein): Structural Revaluation, Long-term Profitability & Product Expansion

Bernstein reaffirms its “outperform” rating on Circle, with a target price of $190. They believe Q4 results prove that Circle is more than just a rate channel; it’s a powerful tech platform capable of product expansion. From Arc to Agentic Payments, Circle is building a stablecoin-based financial infrastructure, a value previously underappreciated by the market. Bernstein’s view leans toward recognition of the company’s long-term strategy and margin quality.

View B (Mizuho Bank): Event-Driven, Focus on Applications like Polymarket

Mizuho analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins raised their target price from $77 to $90 but maintain a neutral rating. They acknowledge improved market sentiment and highlight prediction markets like Polymarket as key catalysts. Mizuho believes Polymarket demonstrates scalable, visible USDC use cases, with high-frequency trading generating both transaction revenue and reserve balances. Regarding Agentic AI, they see it as a long-term bullish option, still in experimental stages. Their perspective emphasizes short-term application scenarios as incremental drivers.

Support and Concerns for the Decoupling Narrative

Is the story of Circle decoupling from the crypto market valid? From the facts:

• Revenue Diversification: The rising share of non-interest income reduces dependence on Federal Reserve monetary policy.
• Application Expansion: From a simple trading medium to prediction markets (Polymarket), enterprise finance (Arc), and potentially AI payments, the driving forces extend beyond the secondary crypto market.

However, caution is warranted. Currently, most of Circle’s revenue still comes from reserve interest. A rapid rate cut cycle could impact its core earnings. Moreover, applications like Polymarket and Agentic Payments have yet to generate revenue comparable to traditional reserve income. Thus, the decoupling is more about growth momentum becoming less sensitive to crypto market fluctuations rather than a complete detachment from existing income streams.

Industry Impact Analysis

Circle’s stock performance and analyst discussions serve as a bellwether for the entire stablecoin and crypto industry:

• For Stablecoin Issuers: Demonstrates the feasibility of building diversified revenue models. Future competition will focus more on on-chain applications, payment networks, and enterprise services than just scale.
• For Layer 1 and Infrastructure: Examples like Canton gaining value from integrating with super validators like Circle will motivate more public chains to seek deep partnerships with compliant stablecoin issuers.
• For Prediction Market DApps: Polymarket’s case proves that a well-designed decentralized app can attract users and generate positive flywheel effects for its underlying stablecoin issuer.

Multi-Scenario Evolution

Based on current facts and logic, we can project several possible future scenarios for Circle:

Conclusion

Circle’s stock surpassing $90 reflects market confidence in its evolving revenue structure. Bernstein’s decoupling thesis and Mizuho’s application-driven outlook together depict a complex picture of this stablecoin giant’s transition from a crypto shadow bank to a digital financial infrastructure provider. Despite risks from rate cuts and competition, the case of Circle has already demonstrated that the true value of stablecoins may lie not just in their pegged assets but in the borderless financial activities they enable. For investors and industry participants, monitoring USDC circulation structure and new application adoption will be key to assessing whether this decoupling narrative can ultimately materialize.