Is this the 2028 diamond bottom for BTC?

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Author: Chain Research Society

Is this the diamond bottom for BTC in 2028?

2026 is undoubtedly the worst start to the year for Bitcoin in nearly a decade.

From the black opening on January 1st to now, BTC has fallen from $109K to $65K, a 24% decline year-to-date. ETH fared even worse, dropping 34%. This is the worst start to the year for BTC since 2016.

But this time is different; this crash has no clear reason.

1. A fall without reason is the deepest fear

In 2018, a 73% drop was due to the ICO bubble burst, with many altcoins collapsing to zero. In 2022, a 77% decline was caused by Luna’s collapse, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX’s bankruptcy. Each crash had identifiable causes.

Each time, you knew where the enemy was and how long it would take to rebuild trust. But what about 2026?

• No exchange failures

• No algorithmic stablecoin collapses

• No hacking attacks

• No country banning BTC

It just fell. Fortune magazine said: “The worst start to the year in history,” but without a clear catalyst for the crash.

A crash with a reason usually leads to a rebound after the negative sentiment is exhausted; but a reasonless fall is like chronic bleeding. When everyone is asking why it’s falling but can’t find an answer, panic exponentially amplifies.

2. Has the bottom-fishing indicator finally triggered?

Currently, the market’s quantitative indicators show that it has entered a kind of irrational sell-off vacuum zone.

According to the latest data from February 25, our bottom-fishing model’s current signal is only 1/5, indicating we are still far from the real bottom (data source: fuckbtc).

❌ MVRV < 1.0

❌ Price ≤ 200-week moving average

❌ Price