February 26, 2026 Cryptocurrency Market Morning Analysis: Oversold Rebound Begins, Focus on Key Resistance Breakthrough

After a deep correction in the previous period, the cryptocurrency market experienced a strong rebound on the morning of February 26. Bitcoin surged nearly 8% in a single day, approaching the $70,000 mark again; Ethereum soared over 13%, temporarily breaking through $2,100. This rebound was driven by multiple factors including technical oversold correction, a rebound in US tech stocks sentiment, and Circle’s better-than-expected earnings report. However, the shadow of a nearly 50% retracement from the all-time high remains, with about 45% of circulating Bitcoin still at unrealized losses. The sustainability of the rebound remains to be seen. In terms of operations, investors are advised to differentiate between long-term and short-term strategies, with a focus on whether Bitcoin can effectively break through the critical psychological level of $70,000.

1. Market Overview: Strong Rebound Recovers Lost Ground

As of the morning of February 26, major cryptocurrencies generally rose sharply:

Bitcoin (BTC): Latest quote around $68,300, up 6.68% in 24 hours, with a daily high of $69,550. This marks a strong V-shaped rebound after consecutive declines.

Ethereum (ETH): Price broke through $2,000, reaching over $2,100 at one point, with a 24-hour increase of over 13%.

Market Sentiment: Cryptocurrency concept stocks also strengthened, with stablecoin issuer Circle’s stock soaring 35% on earnings beat, and Coinbase up over 13%. The fear and greed index quickly rebounded from extreme fear levels.

2. Core Driving Factors Analysis

Strong technical oversold rebound demand: The recent decline pushed Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength index (RSI) down to 25.71, entering an extremely oversold territory, creating strong technical repair needs. The bullish divergence signal on the 4-hour chart became the direct technical trigger for the rebound.

Macroeconomic risk appetite phase recovery: US tech stocks rebounded consecutively, with the Nasdaq rising over 1% in two days, Nvidia’s earnings exceeding expectations, boosting overall risk asset sentiment. As an asset highly correlated with tech stocks, Bitcoin benefited from this.

Industry-specific positive catalysts: Circle, a major stablecoin issuer, announced that its Q4 earnings significantly exceeded market expectations, with USDC circulation expanding substantially, demonstrating the resilience of stablecoins as infrastructure and boosting market confidence.

Partial digestion of previous negative sentiment: Although uncertainties remain regarding US President Trump’s tariff policies, the market has largely priced in these expectations. His omission of digital assets in the State of the Union address was also seen as short-term negative sentiment exhausted.

3. Key Technical Levels and Market Outlook

Key price levels:

Bitcoin: Short-term core support at $65,000–$66,000 (200-week moving average and previous dense trading zone); primary resistance above at $69,000–$70,000 (downtrend channel upper boundary and psychological level). Breaking through $70,000 is crucial to reversing the short-term downtrend.

Ethereum: Need to stay above the $2,000 integer level, with resistance at $2,100–$2,150.

Market scenario forecast:

Optimistic scenario (less likely): Bitcoin volume breaks through and stabilizes above $70,000, attracting follow-up buying, targeting $75,000–$80,000. Conditions include the Federal Reserve signaling clear easing and continuous large inflows into spot ETFs.

Neutral scenario (more likely): Bitcoin fluctuates widely between $65,000 and $70,000, with intense battles between bulls and bears, entering a bottoming phase with time used to gain space.

Pessimistic scenario (to be cautious): Weak rebound, Bitcoin falls below support at $65,000 again, possibly testing $60,000 or lower. Conditions include macro negative shocks or new black swan events.

4. Trading Strategy Recommendations

General principle: The current market is a technical rebound after a sharp decline; whether the trend reverses remains to be confirmed. Caution should be exercised, with strict control of positions and risks.

For short-term traders:

Bullish strategy: If the price dips to the $66,000–$66,500 support zone and shows stabilization signals (such as long lower shadows on 4-hour candles), consider small long positions with stop-loss below $65,000, targeting $69,000–$70,000.

Bearish strategy: If the price rebounds to the strong resistance zone at $69,500–$70,000 and shows signs of stagnation (such as long upper shadows or decreasing volume), consider small short positions with stop-loss above $70,500, targeting $68,000.

Key action point: Pay close attention to the battle at the $70,000 level. A breakout could open short-term upside space, while resistance could lead to further consolidation.

For medium- and long-term investors:

Dollar-cost averaging: If you believe in the long-term value of cryptocurrencies, consider deploying in stages at $65,000–$68,000 with small amounts, extending the accumulation period and smoothing costs. Avoid heavy one-time bottom-fishing.

Right-side confirmation: A more prudent approach is to wait for clearer trend signals. For example, if Bitcoin’s daily closing price stabilizes above $72,000 (breaking through previous consolidation upper boundary), then consider increasing positions.

Position and risk management:

Regardless of strategy, individual trade positions should not exceed 5% of total funds.

Set strict stop-losses: Short-term trades can set stop-loss 1–2% outside key support/resistance levels.

Keep sufficient stablecoins as flexible funds to respond to potential further dips and seize better entry opportunities.

5. Important Risk Alerts

Uncertain trend risk: The current rebound cannot confirm a trend reversal. Bitcoin has retraced nearly 50% from its October 2025 all-time high, with heavy trapped positions above, and the rebound process may be volatile.

Macro policy risk: Monetary policies of major economies (especially the Federal Reserve), regulatory developments, and geopolitical events can impact high-risk assets at any time.

High volatility risk: Cryptocurrencies are inherently volatile, with daily fluctuations exceeding 5% common. High leverage trading can easily lead to liquidation. Many contracts have been liquidated in the past 24 hours, so caution is advised.

Compliance risk: Cryptocurrency trading and speculation are explicitly prohibited within China, and related activities are not protected by law. Participants face financial and legal risks.

Conclusion: The strong rebound on February 26 injects confidence into a market that has been in a prolonged decline, but it is premature to declare the end of the bear market. Investors should view this rebound rationally as a process of market sentiment recovery and technical correction. It is advisable to adopt a “cautiously optimistic, step-by-step” approach, focus on key level breakthroughs, manage positions carefully, and guard against further dips.