Economist Identifies Bitcoin Turning Points: Analysis Using the 24-Month Cycle Method

Analyst named Peterson developed an intriguing approach to predicting Bitcoin trends based on historical patterns. The economist studied market development regularities by counting the number of months with positive momentum in each two-year period. Using this method, the researcher concluded that a sustained BTC growth should begin on December 22. However, reality proved more complex: the current BTC price is $67,420, reflecting mixed market movements in recent periods.

Economist’s Methodology: Searching for Repeating Patterns

Peterson discovered an interesting regularity through analysis of positive monthly periods. Instead of chaotic price movements, the specialist identified certain cyclical structures that repeat every 24 months. This method allowed the economist to highlight December as a potential turning point when a recovery trend was expected to gain strength.

Market Data Contradicts the Forecast: CoinGlass Statistics

Contrary to the economist’s predictions, the market showed a different picture. According to CoinGlass analytics, positive months in 2025 alternated with loss-making months. BTC increased in January, April, May, June, July, and September — a total of six profitable months. The rest of the half-year was characterized by declining quotes. Interestingly, historically, November has shown the best results since 2013, with an average return of 41.13%, significantly exceeding December figures.

Extreme Fear and Market Volatility

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index recorded extreme fear levels — just 9 points. This signal indicates panic among investors and highly pessimistic market sentiment. At the same time, Polymarket offers an alternative view: analysts estimate only a 17% chance that December will be the best month of the year, while November received a slightly higher estimate — 18%.

Fading Forecasts: Signs of Market Rationalization

Santiment’s analysis platform found an interesting phenomenon — the number of public Bitcoin price forecasts on social media has significantly decreased. Experts interpret this as a return of market sentiment to a neutral zone, which they see as a positive sign. Analysts note that previous calls for BTC to rise to $150,000–200,000, as well as forecasts of correction down to $50,000–100,000, are becoming less prominent. This indicates fatigue among the expert community from extreme predictions.

Signs of Cooling: Activity and Capital Outflows

Despite the economist’s hopes for recovery, data points to cooling activity. Santiment recorded a steady decline in transaction volumes, a reduction in active addresses, and a slowdown in network growth. These indicators suggest waning market participant interest.

An even more symbolic signal is the behavior of large capital. Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to Bitcoin’s price have shown consistent net outflows for five consecutive weeks. During this period, investors withdrew about $3.8 billion, indicating a serious reassessment of positions by professional players. In the last week alone, outflows amounted to approximately $315.9 million, highlighting the intensity of this process.

Conclusions: When the Economist Meets Reality

The economist’s forecast of a December recovery demonstrates how even careful analysis of historical patterns can diverge from current market dynamics. Multiple independent data points — from fear indices to financial flows — create a more complex picture than a simple cyclical approach. Today’s BTC reflects not only mathematical patterns but also the complex interaction of investor sentiment, macroeconomic factors, and actual demand for the asset.