US equity futures are slightly negative premarket, reflecting a market that continues to move within a narrow range near all time highs. Beneath the surface, sentiment indicators tell a more cautious story. The Fear and Greed Index has slipped back into Fear, and the put call ratio is sitting at levels typically associated with extreme caution.

This divergence between resilient prices and fragile sentiment is being reinforced by a dense layer of political and geopolitical uncertainty. Tensions between the United States and Iran have revived discussions about broader conflict, and markets are once again assigning a nonzero probability to global escalation.
On the policy front, liquidity conditions are shifting but not at a pace that restores confidence. Quantitative easing has resumed, yet the expansion is measured. Policy rates have been on pause for several months despite cooling inflation data and weakening labor market signals. The result is a macro environment defined less by conviction and more by hesitation, a market supported by liquidity but constrained by uncertainty.
Not financial advice