SOL Overall Analysis:

Price Trend: From the early 2026 high of approximately 148-150 USD, it has been continuously plummeting, with the recent low touching around 95-96 USD. It has now rebounded slightly to the 101 USD range (your screenshot shows the latest price around 101.90 USD, with real-time market confirmation at about 101-102 USD). Overall, it remains in a major downward channel, with weak rebound strength (retracing less than 20% of the previous decline). After multiple false breakouts, it continues to decline, and the bearish trend remains unchanged with no substantial reversal signals.

Time Frame: The screenshot mainly shows daily/4H charts, indicating a complete medium-term bear market structure. A technical rebound after deep oversold conditions (TD Up6 signal) is a dead cat bounce. Multiple sell confirmations marked as “9”, “13”, and “Red 9”. The current rebound faces resistance at moving averages, with a high probability of continuing to new lows.

Technical Indicators: MA/EMA: All moving averages show death crosses downward pressure. Although the price has rebounded, it remains significantly below the moving averages, indicating a persistent bearish arrangement. RSI: Ranges from 20-40, showing a slight recovery from extreme oversold levels (38-45). No strong bullish divergence, only short-term correction. MACD: Bearish crossover persists, green bars have narrowed but remain bearish, with ongoing downward momentum. Volume: Previously experienced massive volume during the decline (panic liquidation), with a noticeable decrease during the rebound, indicating weak buying conviction.

Market Environment: In February 2026, the crypto market entered a deep bear phase (BTC dropped to around 76k, with capital flowing out of the entire market). SOL beta is high, amplifying the decline. Fundamentals like TVL support are ineffective, and market sentiment remains dominated by panic (discussions of cutting losses and liquidations). Risks: The oversold rebound may extend to 105-108 (to clear stop-losses). If volume stabilizes above 110, caution is advised. However, the probability is low. Currently, after encountering resistance, the risk-reward ratio for shorting remains favorable.

My Recommendation: Short SOL/USDT
Reason: The major bearish trend remains intact. The rebound is a result of oversold correction and volume contraction false signals. No reversal resonance in indicators, making it suitable to add to short positions at high levels. The current price around 101 USD suggests much more downside potential than upside.

Entry Strategy: Short at around 102-104 USD, or wait for a rebound to 106-107 USD to add to short positions.
Stop Loss: Set above 110 USD (recent high extension), with risk control at 4-6%.

Take Profit: Partial profit-taking, first target at 98-95 USD, second below 90 USD (if panic continues, consider 80+ USD).

Position Size: Recommend 10-15% of total funds (trend still strong, but caution due to oversold conditions), leverage 5-8x (high volatility, prevent liquidation).