A Look at Gold’s Past Cycles — Are We Near the Top?

Gold is in the spotlight right now, so I took a look at its past bull cycles—and what I found is intriguing.
Gold never moves in a straight line. Its history is defined by large waves: long periods of rising prices, followed by years of stagnation or decline. This pattern has repeated consistently over time—a strong bull run, then a lengthy cooling-off period.
1st Major Bull Cycle (1970 – 1980)
Duration: ~10 years
The modern gold bull started around 1970, after the U.S. abandoned the gold standard and money printing increased. Inflation fears surged, and gold became a safe haven. Over the next decade, it skyrocketed from roughly $35 to nearly $850 by 1980. Everyone believed the rally would never end.
Bear Market / Sideways Phase
After the 1980 peak, gold entered one of its longest bear phases. From 1980 to 2001—almost 21 years—prices either declined or stagnated. Interest faded, stocks seemed more attractive, and gold went from hero to forgotten.
2nd Major Bull Cycle (2001 – 2011)
Duration: ~10 years
Gold’s next big run began around 2001, gaining momentum after the 2008 financial crisis as fear returned and governments printed money. Prices surged from around $250 to nearly $1,900 by 2011, once again creating widespread belief in gold’s invincibility.
Bear Market / Sideways Phase
From 2011 to 2015, gold corrected sharply and largely moved sideways, dropping near $1,050. Gold lost its shine again, and many investors turned elsewhere.
The Current Cycle
The current bull cycle is already about 10–11 years old, starting from the real bottom in December 2015. The early years were a slow, steady climb, but the real acceleration came post-COVID in 2020, as money printing surged, uncertainty spiked, wars broke out, currencies weakened, and central banks increased gold purchases. Gold transitioned from a calm uptrend to a powerful bull phase.
Why Time Matters
The first major bull lasted ~10 years (1970–1980).
The second lasted ~10 years (2001–2011).
The current cycle, counting from 2015, is already around 10 years old.
Historically, gold bull markets tend to mature around this timeframe. That doesn’t mean a crash is imminent, but the final stage of a bull market is often the fastest and most emotional. In 1980 and 2011, gold surged almost vertically before peaking.
Cycles usually unfold like this:
A slow, healthy uptrend.
A strong, accelerating move with pullbacks.
A rapid, almost vertical surge driven by fear and FOMO.
Right now, gold is in that strong acceleration stage: media coverage is rising, central banks are buying, retail investors are entering, and global uncertainty is high. These are classic signs of a late-stage bull market.
So, are we at the top?
Not necessarily. Gold could still climb higher, and the trend remains strong. But considering the cycle’s duration and behavior near previous tops, we could be closer to the final stage than the beginning. History shows that after every major gold rally, there’s always a long, quiet or painful period that follows.#GoldBreaksAbove$5,200 ‌$