ETH drops below $2800: The tug-of-war between short-term suppression and whale accumulation

According to the latest news, ETH/USDT is currently trading at $2,799.36, down 5.27% over the past 24 hours. This is the third time in the past week that Ethereum has broken below a key psychological level, but at the same time, we observe an interesting phenomenon: while the market is declining, large buyers are accumulating against the trend. What does this reflect?

Multiple Pressures Driving Price Down

Short positions continue to suppress

Based on the latest on-chain data, short positions are still exerting pressure on ETH price. The “ZEC largest short” address, although taking partial profits on ETH shorts (about $3.13 million) on January 23, still holds a short position worth $130 million, with a floating profit of approximately $14.3 million. This indicates that shorts still have the motivation to push prices lower to realize more profits.

Spot ETF continues to outflow

US spot ETF data shows a shift in investor sentiment. On January 22, Bitcoin spot ETF experienced net outflows of $32.11 million, and ETH spot ETF saw net outflows of $41.98 million. This institutional-level outflow reflects cautious attitudes toward short-term trends.

Price pressure over time

A 7-day decline of over 15% indicates this is not just intraday volatility but a deeper correction.

But the fundamentals still have bright spots

Whales’ contrarian accumulation shows confidence

While the market is falling, large buyers continue to accumulate:

• On January 23, whale address 0xfb7 bought another 20,013 ETH from FalconX, worth about $59 million, increasing their ETH holdings to 80,115 ETH
• Another investor purchased nearly 45,000 ETH in one go
• OTC whales increased holdings by 10,000 ETH

These large purchases are not scattered retail actions but strategic positions driven by whales. The leveraged long funding rate has surged 145.56%, reflecting active increase in long positions.

Ecosystem activity hits new highs

According to Token Terminal data, Ethereum mainnet shows dual positive signals:

• Transaction fees hit historic lows
• Contract deployment volume reaches new highs

What does this mean? Developers and users are engaging more actively with the Ethereum network, while costs are decreasing. This is an important indicator of ecosystem health.

Staking ecosystem thriving

Data from Gate platform shows total ETH staked has surpassed 167,200 ETH, with an annualized yield of 9.70%. This indicates that institutional and individual investors remain confident in Ethereum’s long-term prospects and are willing to lock assets for staking.

Technical support levels

Based on BOSS Wallet’s 4-hour candlestick analysis:

• Recent support: $2,864
• Recent resistance: $3,168
• Recent low: $2,939.88
• Recent high: $3,346.56

The current price at $2,799 is close to the historical low, which usually signifies extreme market pessimism and often precedes a rebound.

Summary

ETH is currently in a tug-of-war between “short sellers’ suppression” and “whale accumulation.” In the short term, short positions and ETF outflows are indeed putting downward pressure, but at the same time, continuous whale buying, record-high ecosystem activity, and staking scale reaching new highs all indicate that market participants remain confident in Ethereum’s long-term outlook. The $2,800 level may reflect extreme pessimism but also presents a strategic opportunity for large buyers. The key future trend depends on whether short positions continue to increase and whether spot buying can effectively absorb selling pressure.