As of the morning of January 23 (Bangkok time), the performance of the RIVER token has been crazy—its price has soared to a record high of $67.20, a 42.9% increase in 24 hours. Trading volume has also exploded, reaching nearly $50 million. It looks exciting, but a closer look at the data reveals some tricks.

What is the real story behind this surge? Frankly, it’s mainly driven by aggressive futures leverage. The spot trading volume is relatively small, but the futures trading volume is over 80 times that of the spot, and open interest remains high at $230 million. This uneven trading structure essentially indicates a leverage bubble being inflated.

Interestingly, even after 1.5 million RIVER tokens (worth nearly $40 million, accounting for 4.32% of circulating supply) were unlocked on January 22, the price didn’t fall but instead rose. What does this mean? It shows that market sentiment has already reached a boiling point, and the bulls are starting to go a little crazy.

From a short-selling perspective, the risks here are indeed significant. Although short-term liquidations mainly target long positions, the shorts are actually slowly accumulating strength. When sentiment reverses, these accumulated leveraged positions could collapse like a house of cards. High futures open interest combined with extreme price volatility often signals an impending market reversal.

For investors looking for trading opportunities, the current market does present some interesting shorting levels to watch. But the prerequisite is understanding the market’s fragility—it may look solid, but it’s actually a house of cards built on leverage.