Trump eases tariff threats, Nasdaq futures rebound 1% in pre-market. Is this a corrective rebound or a trend reversal?

Nasdaq 100 futures extended their pre-market gains to 1% on January 22, 2026, marking a clear shift in market sentiment after previous adjustments. According to the latest news, Trump announced during the Davos World Economic Forum that he would temporarily suspend tariffs on eight European countries, with the additional tariffs originally scheduled to take effect on February 1 being indefinitely postponed. This change directly ignited a market rebound sentiment, causing US stock futures to rise accordingly.

The Market Logic Behind the Tariff Relief

From Panic to Relief: The Emotional Turnaround

Just one day earlier (January 20), Nasdaq 100 futures were still under a 2% decline. At that time, the market was full of concerns over Trump’s comprehensive tariff policies, with tech stocks collectively retreating and the VIX index spiking to 21. Today’s rebound essentially reflects a correction of this overly pessimistic sentiment.

After meeting with NATO Secretary General, Trump changed his stance, claiming to have formed a “framework for future agreements” regarding Greenland and the Arctic region. While this signal does not completely eliminate the risk of trade disputes, it is enough to ease short-term market panic. The cautious statement from Denmark’s Foreign Minister, “Today’s ending is better than the beginning,” also indicates a limited but substantive easing.

The “Shakeout” Logic of US Tech Stocks

From the data perspective, US tech stocks (especially the Magnificent 7) have already declined by a total of 8.7%, and this level of correction has released a significant portion of risk. The rebound in Nasdaq futures aligns with the technical oversold rebound pattern—after excessive selling in panic, a corrective bounce often occurs.

However, it’s important to note that this rebound is more a reaction to the specific event of “tariff relief” rather than a trend reversal signal.

The True Reflection of Capital Flows Divergence

Currently, the market exhibits a typical “risk assets under pressure, safe-haven assets strengthening” divergence pattern:

Gold has hit a new high of $4,890, and spot silver has also risen above $95, attracting substantial capital inflows into traditional safe assets. This reflects investors’ ongoing concerns about macro uncertainties—despite tariff relief, risks such as geopolitical tensions, high US bond yields, and inflation expectations still persist.

Meanwhile, the crypto market remains under pressure, with US spot Bitcoin ETF experiencing a net outflow of $394.68 million the day before. The shift of funds from risk assets to traditional safe assets indicates that risk aversion still dominates. The rebound in Nasdaq futures is more a technical correction within this broader context rather than a sign of a bottom in high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

The True Meaning of the Pre-market Rebound

This 1% increase should be viewed rationally. Pre-market futures tend to be more volatile than during regular trading hours, and liquidity is relatively lower. The current rebound mainly reflects the market’s positive reaction to the “tariff suspension” news, but it does not signify a trend reversal.

According to historical patterns, after experiencing significant adjustments, US stocks often enter a consolidation phase lasting from half a month to a month. The core of this stage is to complete position reshuffling and hot-spot rotation, rather than immediately initiating a major upward trend.

Summary

Nasdaq futures pre-market rebound of 1% is primarily driven by the short-term emotional recovery following Trump’s announcement to suspend tariffs. This is a reasonable technical rebound, but investors should be cautious not to overinterpret it as a trend reversal. The market still faces macro uncertainties, with clear capital flow divergence (gold strong, crypto weak), indicating that risk aversion has not truly dissipated. The key upcoming focus will be on substantive progress in tariff negotiations and whether US tech stocks can stabilize after the rebound.