Bitcoin Price Prediction: Inflation Warning Pressures Rate Cut Hopes As BTC Holds $90k

Source: CoinEdition Original Title: Bitcoin Price Prediction: Inflation Warning Pressures Rate Cut Hopes As BTC Holds $90k Original Link: Bitcoin price today trades near $90,091 after defending the $87,400 support tested earlier this week. The recovery comes as fresh research warns that inflation could derail the rate cut narrative that has supported risk assets, adding a new layer of uncertainty to the macro backdrop.

Inflation Warning Challenges Bull Thesis

A new analysis from the Peterson Institute and Lazard projects U.S. inflation could climb above 4% this year, contradicting market expectations for continued disinflation and aggressive Fed rate cuts.

Adam Posen and Peter Orszag cite several factors that could push prices higher: Trump-era tariffs passing through to consumers, tighter labor markets from potential deportations, fiscal deficits exceeding 7% of GDP, and easier financial conditions. They argue these forces will outweigh productivity gains from AI and falling housing inflation.

The projection matters for crypto because the bull case relies heavily on lower borrowing costs. If inflation resurges, the Fed would struggle to cut rates as aggressively as markets expect. Several investment banks currently forecast 50-75 basis points of cuts this year, while some crypto analysts anticipate even more.

Treasury yields already reflect the concern. The 10-year yield hit a five-month high of 4.31% this week, tracking record highs in Japanese government bonds. Rising yields make risk assets less attractive by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding investments like Bitcoin.

Spot Inflows Show Accumulation Continues

On January 20, Coinglass recorded a massive $591.61 million in net outflows as price dropped to $88,427, one of the largest single-day distributions in months. The following day saw another $38.60 million exit exchanges as BTC held near $89,454.

The pattern shifted on January 22 with $43.97 million in net inflows, suggesting that buyers finally stepped in to absorb the selling. When flows flip from heavy distribution to accumulation at lower prices, it often marks a potential local bottom.

The two-day distribution totaling $630 million cleared weak hands who entered during the rally above $95,000. Those sellers have now exited, reducing overhead supply and creating room for recovery if macro conditions stabilize.

Price Defends Ascending Trendline Support

On the daily chart, Bitcoin bounced from the ascending trendline drawn from the December low near $80,000. This structure has contained the correction so far, with each test attracting buyers who defend the pattern.

Price remains below all four EMAs, reflecting the short-term weakness:

• Immediate resistance: $91,694 (20 EMA)
• Secondary resistance: $91,997 (50 EMA)
• Major resistance: $95,465 (100 EMA)
• Supertrend resistance: $96,483
• Trend resistance: $99,042 (200 EMA)
• Ascending trendline support: $88,000 to $88,500
• Breakdown target: $85,000

The Supertrend indicator flipped bearish at $96,483 and continues to act as overhead resistance. Reclaiming this level would signal that momentum has shifted back toward buyers.

Intraday Recovery Shows Stabilization

Shorter timeframes reveal the bounce dynamics. On the 30-minute chart, price recovered from $87,400 to test $90,000 resistance. RSI climbed to 56.16 after hitting oversold extremes during the Monday selloff.

MACD shows a bullish crossover forming, with the histogram turning positive for the first time since last week. This suggests that selling pressure has exhausted itself at current levels, at least temporarily.

The $90,000 level now acts as a pivot. Holding above this zone would confirm the bounce and target the 20 EMA at $91,694. Failure to hold reopens the path toward retesting trendline support near $88,000.

Outlook: Can Bitcoin Absorb The Macro Pressure?

The setup demands caution. Rising yields, inflation concerns, and tariff uncertainty create headwinds that did not exist two weeks ago. The technical bounce looks constructive, but macro factors could override short-term signals.

Bullish case: Price holds above $88,000 trendline support and reclaims the 20 EMA at $91,694. A close above $92,000 would signal the correction has ended and target $95,000.

Bearish case: Inflation data confirms the Peterson Institute warning, pushing yields higher and risk assets lower. A close below $88,000 breaks trendline support and targets $85,000, with $80,000 exposed if selling accelerates.