**Debt Cycle Drives the Next Cryptocurrency Bull Market? Raoul Pal Reveals Investment Opportunities in 2026**

At the Solana Breakpoint conference, Raoul Pal, co-founder and CEO of Real Vision, shared a highly insightful perspective: the rise and fall of cryptocurrencies are not driven solely by the 4-year Bitcoin halving cycle, but are controlled by a larger macro force—the debt maturity cycle.

**Global Debt Dilemma: Why Currency Devaluation Is Unavoidable**

The root of the problem lies in demographic structure. As global labor participation rates decline and the employed population continues to decrease, this directly impacts economic growth. Against the backdrop of population decline, the debt-to-GDP ratio of governments and corporations is inevitably rising, which has become a systemic challenge faced worldwide.

Raoul Pal pointed out that historically, there has been only one classic solution (or delay) to high debt problems: currency devaluation. He believes the Federal Reserve will soon have to reassess its balance sheet and start considering how to "monetize" these mountain-high debts. It is expected that within the next 12 months, approximately $8 trillion will be created through liquidity release. This scale of monetary injection will have a profound impact on risk assets.

**Breaking the 4-Year Myth: The 5.4-Year Cycle Behind Crypto Cycles**

Many investors have become pessimistic about the crypto market, believing that this cycle has already run its course. However, Raoul Pal argues that this view overlooks a key fact: the cyclical nature driving crypto assets is not rooted in Bitcoin’s technology itself but in the debt cycle within the macroeconomy.

He proposed a revolutionary idea—that the crypto market is actually driven by a 5.4-year cycle, rather than the traditional 4-year cycle. Under this 5.4-year macro cycle framework, the market has already passed the bottom zone and is officially entering an upward phase. Based on this pattern, the market peak should occur by the end of 2026, rather than the 2025 many expect.

**Where Are the Altcoin Opportunities: Signals of Business Cycle Bottoming**

Raoul Pal emphasized that the performance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin is dominated by the business cycle. Observing current economic data, it appears that the business cycle is approaching its bottom rather than peaking. This suggests that, based on the cross-rate between altcoins and Bitcoin, there is still more room for upward movement.

His core conclusion is: understanding cryptocurrencies requires a macro asset perspective. Against the backdrop of global central banks releasing liquidity and accelerating debt monetization, crypto assets are no longer niche technological innovations but essential allocations to hedge inflation and participate in the global liquidity cycle. This is not just a story about a crypto cycle, but an investment cycle determined by macroeconomic factors.