Bitcoin's Future Dilemma: Security Concerns Amid Declining Miner Incentives

DAOplomacy · 2026-01-17T23:56:12+00:00

A certain crypto fund leader predicts that Bitcoin may face a systemic crisis in the next 7 to 11 years due to the halving of block rewards leading to reduced miner revenue. Whether transaction fees can make up for this gap will be crucial and could impact the security of the network.

DAOplomacy

2026-01-17 23:56:12

Abstract generation in progress

【BitPush】An interesting topic has sparked discussion in the community. A well-known crypto fund leader recently made a bold prediction—Bitcoin may face a systemic crisis in the next 7 to 11 years.

His logic is actually quite understandable: as block rewards are halved repeatedly, miners’ mining revenue will inevitably decline year by year. The question is, can transaction fees pick up the slack? The reality is that most of the time, transaction fees are not particularly high. As a result, miners’ total income is squeezed, and the entire network’s security budget naturally shrinks.

Once the security costs decrease, the network’s protective capabilities may be put to the test. This is not alarmist talk, but a core challenge of Bitcoin’s long-term economic model. Do you want to join this discussion?

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GasBankrupter

· 15h ago

Here we go again, every halving they say it's the end, but the coins are still here Miner fees are really an issue, but wasn't layer2 already paving the way? Is this guy trying to create buzz or genuinely bearish? Sounds pretty anxious The safety budget shrinking depends on market cap, you can't just focus on mining rewards The flash crash prophets are at it again with new predictions, let's wait and see the face-slapping

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WenAirdrop

· 15h ago

Well... to be honest, the miners' bloodbath after the halving has been known for a long time. Why are you only bringing it up now? The fees are insufficient to make up for the gap in block rewards, which is indeed a serious issue. But a systemic crisis from 2007 to 2011 seems a bit exaggerated. The BTC network's resilience isn't that weak. Don't think of it as too fragile.

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AirdropworkerZhang

· 15h ago

Hmm... this logic sounds good, but it's not that absolute. Miners aren't fools; when it truly becomes unprofitable, they will naturally adjust. The fee market is also evolving. Moreover, 7 to 11 years is still early; maybe one day a technological breakthrough will change the game again.

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NFTregretter

· 15h ago

Uh... I've heard this logic several times before, but I always feel it's a bit of unnecessary worry. Is this guy trying to say that transaction fees are going to skyrocket? Nowadays everyone is using layer2, who still trades on the mainnet? 7 to 11 years ago is too far back; Bitcoin has survived until now, why hasn't it died yet? If miners really couldn't make enough profit, they would have switched long ago; they wouldn't wait for a crisis to run. It's just the same old tune, a prophet like this every year. For something like Bitcoin, some people are bearish while others go all in—whatever happens, happens.

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