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What exactly happened in the OTC market in 2025-2026?
The core insight is quite shocking: the traditional 4-year cycle has become invalid.
We used to predict the entire crypto market trend based on Bitcoin halving—once every 4 years. But now, this logic no longer applies. Why? Because the market structure has changed.
The most critical change is: liquidity has become extremely fragmented.
No longer is it an era where "when prices rise, everything rises; when prices fall, everything falls." Now, selective liquidity dominates—certain projects and sectors can attract funds, while others cannot survive. The allocation strategies of large funds have completely changed; they are no longer passively following market cycles but actively choosing targets.
This change in the OTC market reflects a deeper phenomenon: increased institutionalization and more differentiated strategies among market participants. Small retail investors are still waiting for the next bull market, but big funds are already making structural choices.
What does this mean for traders? Simply put, don’t just focus on macro cycles anymore.