Observation Notes

The market has recently been flooded with a hot topic: Trump is once again pressuring the Federal Reserve, directly calling out Powell—urging to cut interest rates quickly while inflation is receding and the economy is still doing well. The underlying message is clear: delay no longer, time is running out.

Interestingly, he also claims recent economic performance as his own achievement, attributing it to tariff policies. This move adds more political flavor to the already ambiguous relationship between the Fed and the White House.

From a trading perspective, the situation has become delicate: solid economic data + mounting political pressure = policy outlook shrouded in uncertainty. The market fears this kind of unpredictability most, especially when everyone is betting on easing liquidity; any small change can trigger volatility.

Just look at $BCH—currently at $612.2, down 1.1%. Most traders are wavering amidst these complex signals, unable to find a clear direction.

In essence, it’s now a contest of strength: on one side, seemingly stable economic data; on the other, increasingly tense political leverage. Who will win in the end? Likely determined by one thing—the direction of interest rates.

Therefore, rate cuts are no longer just an economic issue but have become a bargaining chip in political negotiations. In this stalemate, the market will swing back and forth between expectations and reality until one side truly commits to a stance.

(Practical trading advice: Keep your positions flexible. During big swings, protect your risk bottom line but also don’t miss opportunities when expectations reverse.)