Nothing Research Partner 0xTodd Shares His Investment Philosophy: A Bitcoin and US Treasury Bond Portfolio That Provides Stable Returns During Both Monetary Expansion and Contraction. He Believes Stablecoins Are an Underestimated Killer Application and Is Optimistic About the Structural Integration of AI and Cryptocurrency.
(Background: Female Stock Goddess Predicts the US: Trump Will Buy 1 Million BTC as Bitcoin’s National Reserve)
(Additional Context: Bitwise CIO: Can Bitcoin Enter a Long-Term Bull Market by 2026? The Key Is Overcoming Three Major Tests)

Table of Contents

• 1. Cross-Disciplinary: From Laboratory to Bitcoin’s “Moment of Arrival”
• 2. Standing Firm Amid Noise: A Structural Judgment on Luna
• 3. Research Methodology: I Welcome the Whole World to “Debate”
• 4. Investment Philosophy: Asset Portfolio That Lets You “Sleep Well”
• 5. Underestimated Killer Application: Stablecoins
• 6. The Silicon-Based Perspective of AI: Crypto Is Its Natural Solution
• 7. Advice for Newcomers and Three Predictions for 2026
• 8. Slow Judgment Is Long-Term Competitiveness

In the crypto industry, most discussions revolve around price swings, narrative rotations, and upcoming opportunities. But what truly determines whether someone can stay at the table long-term is not a single doubling, but whether they still know what they are doing when the market gives no feedback.

This is also something 0xTodd has repeatedly validated over the past eight years.

In 2017, transitioning from a materials chemistry background into the crypto industry, 0xTodd is both a long-term researcher and a builder continuously seeking “certainty” within the underlying structures. Compared to emotion-driven participation, he cares more about: which things are worth long-term bets.

1. Cross-Disciplinary: From Laboratory to Bitcoin’s “Moment of Arrival”

Todd’s entry into the industry was not gradual but marked by a clear era signature.

In 2017, he was preparing to apply for a PhD abroad. At the same time, a global ransomware attack called “EternalBlue” broke out, demanding victims pay ransom in Bitcoin. While most people focused on cybersecurity risks, he saw another signal—the first time Bitcoin entered mainstream discourse as a “real use case.”

Having encountered Bitcoin as early as 2013, Todd is highly sensitive to this. He later mentioned a recurring judgment:

Whenever mainstream media begins seriously discussing “what Bitcoin can be used for,” it often signals a major cycle is unfolding.

So he halted his PhD application and entered the crypto industry. To him, this was not a speculative choice but a rational decision after witnessing a new financial species entering the mainstream—shifting from a sluggish traditional academic path to a rapidly evolving new field.

2. Standing Firm Amid Noise: A Structural Judgment on Luna

After entering the industry, research and writing quickly became Todd’s main focus.

From early research outputs on Zhihu, to formal research systems at family offices and exchanges, and later founding Nothing Research, he has always focused on core themes like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins. As his presence shifted to Twitter (X), his research became more widely seen and more frequently questioned.

In 2021, when Luna and UST were at their market sentiment peak, he chose to take an almost unpopular stance—publicly questioning their underlying structure and defining them as systems highly dependent on confidence. For a time, this judgment did not bring applause but continuous attacks and ridicule.

In 2022, UST collapsed. Todd’s managed funds profited significantly by shorting UST during the extreme market conditions. Although he didn’t fully “successfully top out” during the DeFi Summer, this successful judgment proved his repeated emphasis on “earning recognition.”

“This kind of thrill of proving your cognition with real money is more exciting than ordinary profits—it’s a dopamine frenzy.”

3. Research Methodology: I Welcome the Whole World to “Debate”

Unlike many researchers, Todd does not oppose debate; he actively encourages “debate.”

He habitually invites people with different viewpoints to challenge his research after publishing insights. To him, the real danger is not opposition but conclusions that are internally consistent within a closed environment without external testing.

This habit stems from his early training in materials chemistry:

Every conclusion needs a source, every logic must be traceable, every judgment should be reproducible.

Therefore, he always demands strict restraint in his research—preferring slow accuracy over quick attention. In an industry overloaded with information, this “slow thinking” helps him avoid much noise.

He believes the biggest challenge in crypto is not lack of information but how to judge which information is trustworthy. The methodology formed during his academic research stage is a crucial tool for filtering information.

4. Investment Philosophy: Asset Portfolio That Lets You “Sleep Well”

Regarding asset allocation, Todd currently endorses a portfolio structure—Bitcoin + US Treasury Bonds.

The logic is simple:

• Bitcoin: Observe only one variable—the continued expansion of money supply by major economies. As long as fiat currencies keep inflating, Bitcoin as a “non-sovereign, limited supply asset” will retain its hedge value.
• US Treasuries: During high-interest rate cycles, locking in long-term yields of around 4%–5% provides stable cash flow for the portfolio.

He sees this as forming a complete loop:

If money printing continues, Bitcoin benefits; if it stops, US Treasuries provide stable returns.

“This is a portfolio that can let people sleep soundly long-term.”

5. Underestimated Killer Application: Stablecoins

If Bitcoin is the first killer app in blockchain, then in Todd’s view, stablecoins are the second, and they are still underestimated.

Living and working abroad, he has a very intuitive sense of stablecoins’ value. Traditional banking systems are not as stable as imagined—account restrictions, compliance reviews, and cross-border frictions can appear at any time. Stablecoins only need a wallet to transfer value globally.

On the topic of RWA (Real-World Assets), his attitude remains cautious and discerning:

He is cautious about “full tokenization of securities,” believing traditional finance is already highly mature in these areas; but he is long-term optimistic about stablecoins anchored to real yield assets, especially US Treasuries.

In this context, he also notes products like BitMart’s BMRUSD (in partnership with DigiFT). These stablecoins, anchored to real assets and offering predictable yields, are more likely to be accepted long-term under regulatory trends.

“Once you’ve used stablecoins, it’s hard to go back entirely to traditional banking.”

AI’s Silicon-Based Perspective: Crypto Is Its Natural Solution

Regarding the relationship between AI and crypto, Todd does not indulge in concept stacking but thinks from a structural perspective.

He sees AI-assisted trading as an almost inevitable direction. As models improve, AI’s stability and speed in execution will eventually surpass most human traders.

More importantly, the issue of cooperation and payment among AIs. When AIs start calling services, purchasing computing power or data, binding bank cards is obviously impractical. High-precision, programmable, permissionless stablecoins naturally become the most suitable settlement medium.

From this angle, crypto is not an accessory narrative for AI but a natural complement in the economic layer.

When asked whether content creators should worry about being replaced by AI, Todd says to prepare early and wait for its arrival.

Advice for Newcomers and Three Predictions for 2026

For newcomers wanting to enter the industry, Todd’s advice remains pragmatic and conservative:

Learn technology first, then learn trading.

Understanding the technical principles of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and DeFi is far more important than initially focusing on candlestick charts.

Regarding future predictions, he highlights three main themes:

2. Crypto finds its place in the AI wave: AI provides productivity, crypto provides production relations.
3. Stablecoin scenarios continue to expand: payments, wealth management, and cross-border settlement will truly enter the public eye.
4. Compliance brings structural incremental growth: participation of large financial institutions will push the industry into a new development stage.

Slow Judgment Is Long-Term Competitiveness

Todd does not chase the hype of narratives. He is more like someone constantly moving within the structure: researching, verifying, building, and reviewing.

In a highly cyclical industry, the market rewards speed, but ultimately, those who truly understand the structure and are willing to be responsible for every statement are the ones who stay.

Risk Warning:

The opinions or views expressed in this column are solely those of the guest and do not represent BitMart or its affiliates, nor should they be considered professional financial investment advice.

Cryptocurrency investment is highly speculative and involves significant risk of loss. Past performance, hypothetical scenarios, or simulated results do not guarantee future returns. The value of digital currencies can fluctuate, and buying, holding, or trading digital currencies involves substantial risks. Please carefully assess their suitability based on your investment goals, financial situation, and risk tolerance before participating in trading or holding digital currencies. BitMart does not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice.