#美联储降息预期 Looking back at history, every time the Federal Reserve signals a rate cut, it always stirs up the markets. Now, HSBC's analysis has once again reminded me of the rate-cutting cycle after the 2008 financial crisis. At that time, risk assets also experienced similar sluggish sentiment, but what followed was a decade-long bull market.

However, although history shows similarities, it never simply repeats itself. The current market environment is very different from back then, especially with the technology sector now playing an even more dominant role. The abnormal movement of the VIX futures curve and the sharp decline in expected profits for S&P 500 non-tech sectors are both reminders that we need to be more cautious.

From past experience, low expectations often mean greater upside potential. If the Fed really does start cutting rates in December, it could become a major catalyst for risk assets. But we should also be wary that if these expectations are not met, it could trigger even more severe market volatility.

For investors, now may be a time worth paying close attention to. But I recommend focusing more on balanced asset allocation when increasing risk exposure, and not concentrating too heavily on any single sector. After all, in a market that changes so rapidly, diversification will always be the key to success.