Regarding the Fed's interest rate decision in December, the market's focus has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "how to achieve a rate cut." According to Barclays' latest interpretation, despite clear divisions within the Fed, Chairman Powell is likely to become a key force in driving the rate cut.

From the current distribution of positions among the FOMC voting members, a subtle balance has formed internally. According to Barclays' interpretation of the recent statements from various members, excluding Powell's position, there may already be 6 members within the FOMC inclined to keep the interest rate unchanged, while 5 are inclined to lower it, which introduces significant uncertainty to the Fed's December interest rate decision.
Despite the differences, Barclays believes that Powell, as the chair of the Fed, will play a leading role in the final interest rate decision. This is because the threshold for other board members to openly oppose the chair's position is quite high. This means that if Powell leans towards a rate cut, he is likely to have the ability to guide the FOMC to ultimately reach a decision to cut rates.
This judgment contrasts with predictions from other Wall Street institutions, such as Goldman Sachs, which still believes there is a possibility of a rate cut in December; while JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley no longer expect the Fed to take action to cut rates in December.