The market is crashing! Non-farm payrolls hit 119,000, exploding past expectations. Will the crypto world see bloodshed tonight?

Brothers, the past hour has been completely crazy for the entire financial market! The U.S. Department of Labor just released the September non-farm employment data, leaving everyone stunned—119,000 new jobs! What does this mean? The market expected only 52,000, and the previous figure was just 22,000. This data is practically pushing expectations to the ground and stepping on them!
My trading app on my phone instantly went haywire, the US dollar index soared straight up, US stock futures plummeted, and the crypto market is crying out in despair. To be honest, tonight is destined to be historic, and most people may not realize that a bloody storm has only just begun.
How terrifying is this data?
First, we need to understand what 119,000 non-farm payrolls mean. Brothers, this isn't just "better than expected" data; it's a divine assist for the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve!
Think about it—just a month ago, the market was still panicking over "US recession," with a previous value of 22,000 making everyone think "it's over, soft landing is turning hard." And what happened? In just one month, the data has increased more than fivefold! What does this indicate? It shows the US economy is extremely resilient, and the labor market is blazing hot.
For the Fed, this is the best "rate hike permit." Powell can now confidently say: "See? The economy is so strong, there's no need to rush to cut rates!" So, market expectations instantly turned 180 degrees—the probability of a rate cut in November dropped from 70% yesterday to below 30%, and some aggressive analysts are even shouting "Don’t expect rate cuts before 2026"!
Key point: This is not just a regular bullish signal; it's a fatal blow to rate cut expectations. The slogan "Higher for Longer" will from today become the market’s main theme.
Three major shockwaves are coming—are you ready?
This non-farm payroll impact will hit in three layers like a tsunami, each capable of bankrupting you.
First wave: The dollar king returns, doomsday for non-dollar assets
Once the data came out, the US dollar index DXY shot from 106 to 108, a nuclear-level surge in forex markets. Brothers, what does a stronger dollar mean? It means all risk assets priced in dollars are doomed!
Crypto first: Bitcoin, Ethereum—these digital assets are fundamentally risk assets. When the dollar strengthens, capital will rush back into the US, buying US bonds and dollar deposits—risk-free assets. Who still wants to hold highly volatile cryptocurrencies? So, selling pressure will come wave after wave, unstoppable.
Emerging markets blood flowing: look at Turkey lira, Argentine peso today—they have lost so much that you can’t recognize them. Funds are fleeing from all corners of the globe to the US, revealing the brutal reality of dollar hegemony.
Second wave: Liquidity dreams shattered, high interest rates become the new normal
The market once fantasized that the Fed would quickly cut rates to flood the market. Now? The dream is over! With such strong non-farm employment data, the Fed has enough confidence to maintain high interest rates, or even hike again.
What does this mean for crypto? It means no cheap money! How did the 2021 bull run come about? Central banks flooded the market! How did the rebound in 2023 happen? Rate cut expectations! Now both are gone, market liquidity is cut off, what supports the high valuations?
More critically, high interest rates will continue to suppress risk appetite. Think about it—US one-year risk-free rates are nearly 5.5%, who’s willing to gamble with leverage and risk of liquidation? Funds will flow steadily out of risk assets into fixed income products. Once this trend sets in, it’s not something that can be reversed in a day or two.
Third wave: Leverage doomsday, liquidation spiral on the way
This is the most dangerous wave. Brothers, check out the contract data—currently, across the whole network, Bitcoin futures position is over $20 billion, with more than 60% long positions. Among these longs, how many are using 10x, 20x, or even 50x leverage?
$85,000 is the critical threshold—life or death! Once broken, it will trigger a series of liquidations:
• Break below $85,000 → 10x leverage longs start liquidating → price drops to $84,000
• Hit $84,000 → 20x leverage longs liquidate → price crashes to $82,000
• Break $82,000 again → 50x extreme leverage wiped out → price plunges below $80,000
This is a typical "death spiral" of forced liquidations. Even more frightening, many institutions have set automated stop-loss orders—once the price hits certain levels, they sell automatically. During a decline, the speed is often so fast that you have no time to react.
Data shows that after the last 6 non-farm surprises, Bitcoin's average 24-hour decline was 7.2%. Given how much this data exceeds expectations this time, the fall could be even deeper!
Crypto tonight is a life-and-death game: each coin is passing through a tribulation
Bitcoin: $85,000 is the Maginot Line
BTC is now the focus of the entire market. The $85,000 level has immense technical significance:
• It’s the September low
• It’s the 200-day moving average
• It’s a previous high-volume zone
You could say that $85,000 embodies technical, psychological, and capital support. But can this level hold? I’m pessimistic.
Why? Because the selling pressure is too heavy! Not just contract liquidations, but panic selling in spot markets. Think about those early investors with costs at $60,000 or $70,000—seeing such bad data, will they want to "take profits and exit"? Institutions and miners, facing tightening liquidity, will they sell off their reserves early?
If $85,000 breaks, what’s next?
• First target: $82,000 (previous low)
• Second target: $80,000 (round number)
• Ultimate defense: $78,000 (yearly moving average)
But I think, if $85,000 can’t hold, $80,000 might not either. Panic will spread, and the market needs to find a "desperate bottom" to rebuild energy.
Ethereum: More dangerous than Bitcoin
ETH’s current situation is worse than BTC’s. Why?
First, Ethereum’s narrative has weakened. In a high-interest-rate environment, DeFi yields are unattractive. Previously, you could say "staking ETH yields 5%," now US bonds offer 5.5%, who still plays DeFi?
Second, gas fees remain low. On-chain activity is inactive, and ETH’s burn mechanism isn’t functioning, impacting the entire economic model.
Third, institutional holdings are even more concentrated. The top 1,000 ETH addresses hold a larger proportion of coins than Bitcoin’s whales. If these large holders start selling, the sell-off will be more intense.
From a technical perspective, ETH’s key support is at $2,500. If it breaks, it could head straight to $2,300. Resistance is at $2,750—breakthrough? Very difficult.
SOL, DOGE, MEME coins: liquidity crisis imminent
These small coins may face even worse tonight. Why? Because of liquidity! With such poor non-farm data, risk aversion will intensify, and funds will prioritize exiting the riskiest assets.
SOL’s key support is at $150; if broken, look at $130.
Doge, driven purely by sentiment, might fall back to $0.15 or even $0.12.
All kinds of MEME coins could see bloodshed tonight—30%-50% drops are not impossible.
Brothers, remember one thing: in a bear market, all altcoins are beta to Bitcoin. When Bitcoin falls 10%, they fall 20% or more.
Panic index skyrocketing, market sentiment at freezing point
Market panic is no longer just "worry"—it’s "apocalypse now." The VIX fear index soared from 20 to 28, even before the US stock market opened. Once the US market opens tonight, it might jump above 30. What does 30 mean? During the March 2020 pandemic crash, VIX hit over 80, but normally exceeding 30 indicates extreme panic.
Crypto panic index is even more exaggerated, dropping from 60 to 35 (lower value, more panic). What does this mean? It shows the market has shifted from "greed" to "fear," and the fear is deepening.
Fund flow data is even scarier: in the past 4 hours, the minting of stablecoins USDT and USDC has surged, indicating everyone is converting coins into dollars. Meanwhile, the amount of Bitcoin and Ethereum flowing out of exchanges has increased, showing people are withdrawing to wallets, preparing for long-term "lying flat" or hedging.
This emotional shift often signals that the short-term bottom has not yet arrived. Panic takes time to ferment—from "worry" to "fear" to "despair." We might just be at the "fear" stage now; the real "despair" could come tomorrow morning.
Survivor’s guide: how to make it tonight
Given all these bad news, let’s get practical. How do you operate to survive tonight’s storm?
First rule: refuse to catch falling knives with your bare hands
Many brothers see the drop and want to buy the dip, thinking "it’s fallen so much, it should rebound." Brothers, that idea tonight is especially dangerous!
Remember: in a trend, any bottom-fishing is like a mantis trying to stop a chariot. Data shows: with such strong non-farm payrolls, the trend has fully turned bearish. Buying the dip now isn’t investing, it’s gambling.
Correct approach: wait for a rebound, then reduce positions! For example, if Bitcoin drops to $85,000, and it rebounds to $86,000 or $87,000, that’s your chance to cut. Don’t think "it’s rebounding, I’ll wait for $90,000," the market won’t give you that chance.
Second rule: cash is king, preserve strength
The most important thing now isn’t how much you make, but how to survive. How to survive? Keep cash!
Operation suggestions:
• If you hold full positions, reduce to below 50% on rebounds tonight
• If already below 50%, consider reducing to 30%
• Keep 70% cash reserve, waiting for the real golden opportunity
When will this golden opportunity appear? Maybe tomorrow, maybe next week, maybe a month later. But as long as you have cash, you have a chance. Those reluctant to sell now will regret it when price hits $70,000 and they didn’t cut early.
Third rule: $85,000 is the lifeline—if broken, activate defense mode
Tonight, all operations revolve around this key level.
If $85,000 holds:
• You can open small positions (10%-20%) between $85,000–$86,000 to catch rebounds
• But set stop-loss at $84,800—if broken, run
• Don’t aim too high for rebounds—consider taking profits at $88,000
If $85,000 breaks:
• Don’t hesitate—cut another 30%
• No "wait for rebound to sell" fantasies
• Wait for $80,000 or even $78,000 to buy back
Ultimate secret of defense mode: better to miss a rebound than get trapped halfway up. Selling now limits loss to at most 20%; not selling could lead to a 50% or more drop.
Fourth rule: stay away from high leverage—survive to keep output
If you’re still trading contracts tonight, I respect you, but your wallet might not stay safe.
Specific advice:
• Close all positions above 10x leverage immediately
• For 5x leverage, set a stop-loss—if margin drops below 200%, add margin
• Spot traders: avoid contracts, especially short positions—volatility is too high, a sudden spike can wipe you out
Remember, during this kind of market, "liquidation spikes" happen very frequently. You see the price drop to $85,000, then the next second it spikes down to $83,000 and liquidates longs, then jumps back to $86,000. You have no time to react; your position is gone.
History repeats shockingly: a look back to the 2018 non-farm
Some brothers may ask: "Does data really have such a big impact?" Let’s look at history.
October 5, 2018—non-farm data also greatly exceeded expectations (250,000 vs expected 180,000), and the Fed was in a rate hike cycle. After data was released, how did Bitcoin perform?
• Same day: from $6,600 down to $6,400, a 3% drop
• Three days later: down to $6,200
• One week later: below $6,000
• One month later: down to $4,500
The whole process saw a decline of over 30%, all within a month. How many bought the dip in the middle of the climb? How many got liquidated thinking "it’s enough falling"?
Does today’s situation resemble 2018? Same Fed rate hike cycle, same data surprises, same liquidity tightening. History doesn’t simply repeat, but it always echoes with the same tune.
Practical advice for different investors
If you’re a short-term trader:
Don’t sleep tonight—watch the market. If $85,000 breaks, chase shorts targeting $82,000 or $80,000. If it holds, wait for a rebound to $87,000 and short again, with a stop-loss at $87,500. Remember, short-term trading is about trend-following—don’t try to long in a bear trend.
If you’re a mid-term investor:
When you wake up tomorrow, if the price is above $85,000, reduce your position to below 30%. If it breaks below $85,000, cut to 10% directly. Then focus on work, life—don’t look at the market. Only consider re-entering when the panic index drops below 20 and sentiment stabilizes.
If you’re a long-term holder:
Close your computer, go to sleep. $70,000 or $80,000 doesn’t matter—you believe Bitcoin can reach $200,000 or $300,000 someday. But remember, when dollar-cost averaging, put coins in your wallet, not on exchanges.
If you’re a newcomer:
Congratulations, here’s your first lesson! Don’t operate tonight—study first. Observe how the market fluctuates, how panic spreads, and how seasoned traders respond. Consider this money as tuition; don’t overspend.
After the storm, true hunters will come out
After all this, I’ll leave you with one final message: in financial markets, survival is the biggest win.
Tonight’s storm is a nightmare for many, but an opportunity for a few. Those who buy at $85,000, $80,000, or even $75,000 will thank today’s crash a year from now.
But what’s the prerequisite? You must survive until then. So tonight, control your hands, watch your positions—no gambling, no greed, no impulsiveness.
Finally, one last reminder:
• Cash is king, keep 70% of your bullets
• $85,000 is the lifeline—defend if broken
• Refuse to bottom-fish, reduce on rebounds
• Stay away from leverage—avoid contracts
After the storm, the market will reward calm, rational, disciplined investors. Tonight is a test of whether you can be a "survivor."
Brothers, hold on! The sun will rise tomorrow, but whether your account recovers depends on your actions tonight. Remember the old trader’s advice: don’t fight the Fed, don’t fight the trend, and don’t fight your wallet.
Good luck to everyone—see you tomorrow! #逆势上涨币种推荐 #美联储会议纪要将公布 #比特币行情观察 Bitcoin Market Watch#