BTC – 1D 2020 vs. 1W 2025 Comparison

The aim of this analysis is purely indicative, based on the remarkable similarity that the current price action of Bitcoin shows with the behavior observed during the year 2020.

The structure, the type of pullback, and the way the price can retest the support zone remind me a lot of the pattern prior to the parabolic rally of the last cycle.

However, for this scenario to remain valid, Bitcoin should not strongly and decisively lose the 70,000 $ zone, as that is the level that has acted as a base for an accumulation + consolidation phase before the next impulse.

The projected dates in the graph on the right should not be taken as exact ( and yes the patterns formed ). Replicating timeframes between cycles is extremely difficult, as liquidity conditions, adoption, and macro context change from cycle to cycle.

The intention is to compare structures, not calendars.

The recent decline is likely preceded by some event or information that we do not yet know publicly but that the market seems to have anticipated since 10/10. This is compounded by the narrative of the 4-year cycles, which continues to influence much of the collective sentiment.

What if the cycle is breaking?

It is important to understand that 4-year cycles are not a rule written in stone. At some point, they must be broken simply because the internal mechanics of Bitcoin are changing:

In 2017, there were around 16M BTC in circulation.
Reward: 12.5 BTC per block = 657,000 BTC/year

In 2021, the reward dropped to 6.25 BTC = 328,000 BTC/year

Today there is only ~1M BTC left to mine in total until the year 2140.
Current reward: 3.125 BTC = 164,000 BTC/year

Each cycle introduces less new supply to the system, which implies that each halving has a growing and distinct marginal impact compared to the previous ones.

Therefore, although the structure may resemble that of 2020, the supply and demand conditions are not the same.

Possible scenarios

I do not rule out that Bitcoin may lose $70,000 and seek liquidity at lower levels like $60,000 or even $50,000. The market is sovereign and can always surprise.

This analysis is not intended to predict prices, but to help you reflect on the current context and to consider that the similarities between cycles may guide... but guarantee nothing.