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Track real-time hotspots in the crypto world and seize the best trading opportunities. Today is Friday, November 21, 2025. I am Wang Yibo! Good morning, crypto friends! ☀ Daily attendance 👍 Like and make big money 🍗🍗🌹🌹,
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On Thursday, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively closed lower, with the Dow Jones index down 0.84%, the S&P 500 index down 1.56%, and the Nasdaq composite index down 2.15%. Major tech stocks collectively fell, and a U.S. non-farm payroll data that was 48 days late was released last night, which caused a significant blow to the crypto market. In fact, this delayed data can also be seen as meaningless data. Currently, the market is overly enthusiastic about the Fed's unlikely rate cut in December. According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in December is 39.6%, and the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 60.4%. The probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points by the Fed by January next year is 50.2%, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 29.7%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 20.2%. Market sentiment has further deteriorated, with Bitcoin dropping to a low of 86050 and Ethereum dropping to a low of 2785, with trading volume increasing significantly. The altcoin market is even more chaotic. Next, we need to see how the Fed's "hawk 🦅 and dove 🐦" will play their game, as well as how Trump will try to turn the tide. Stay tuned to Yibo for real-time updates on the crypto market!
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Bitcoin performed remarkably well during yesterday's afternoon session, reaching a peak of 93122 USD before entering a brief structural consolidation phase. However, the good times didn't last long; in the evening session, influenced by news, the price first saw a slight dip to around 92563 USD and then initiated a sharp downward trend. By midnight, the price had retraced to a low of 86050 USD, marking a significant daily decline. The morning market attempted a slight rebound, but after hitting the resistance level near 88200 USD, it fell again, showing weak rebound momentum. From a technical standpoint, the four-hour cycle has clearly indicated a bearish signal. The Bollinger Bands have already shown a downward opening and divergence, with no significant support levels forming effectively below, making the bearish momentum unstoppable, and the market has completely entered a one-sided downward mode. It is worth noting that several key support levels previously recognized by the market were consecutively breached during this decline, with no significant resistance appearing, further confirming the absolute dominance of the bears at this time. Focusing again on the hourly chart, after a continuous four-day decline, the price once dipped below the lower Bollinger Band, followed by a brief rebound for correction. However, caution is warranted as the hourly Bollinger Bands still maintain an outward opening shape, and the bearish momentum has not yet fully exhausted, meaning the overall downward rhythm of the market has not been disrupted by this slight rebound. From a trend logic perspective, the short-term rebound is more likely a technical correction during the downward process, building momentum for further declines rather than a signal of trend reversal.
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The price movement of Ethereum shows a high degree of synchronization with Bitcoin. After reaching a high point of 3062 USD yesterday afternoon, it also entered a horizontal consolidation range. By the evening session, the market peaked at around 3049 USD but failed to break through the previous high resistance, and then began to retreat following the overall market rhythm. In the early morning hours, the price dropped to a low of around 2785 USD before temporarily stopping its decline. Although there was a slight rebound in the morning, it faced pressure again at the 2900 USD round figure and fell back, currently in a slight consolidation state. Technical analysis indicates that Ethereum's four-hour chart also shows a clear bearish pattern. The Bollinger Bands are opening downwards, with ample space below, and bearish volume continues to be released without signs of interruption, indicating an overall one-sided downward trend. Similar to Bitcoin, Ethereum's multiple key support levels have been consecutively breached during this decline, further solidifying the bearish-dominated market structure.
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Operations must adhere to the principle of strict risk control. For long positions, it is essential to enter and exit quickly and lock in profits in a timely manner without being greedy. For short positions, it is advisable to rely on rebound resistance levels for positioning while setting strict stop-loss points to avoid risk control failure due to short-term fluctuations. The current market sentiment is fragile, and there is a high degree of uncertainty in trends. Investors need to remain rational and should not blindly catch falling knives or chase rising prices. It is important to patiently wait for clear signals of a market bottom before adjusting operational strategies.