The US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data for September, which I have been waiting for nearly two months, will finally be released tonight. However, to be honest, is it realistic to expect this delayed report to change the expectations for a rate cut in December? Difficult.

First, let's talk about the current situation: data from a major trading platform shows that the probability of a rate cut in December has plummeted from 48.9% last week to 32.7%. On the Federal Reserve's side, the minutes from the October meeting clearly indicate a hawkish tone prevailing, with several officials recently cooling the market in public, basically just short of saying "don't get your hopes up."

This data itself is also quite awkward. ADP had already given an early hint - in September, private sector employment directly shrank by 32,000, which is far worse than market expectations. Goldman Sachs also analyzed it quite thoroughly: if the data is bad, it will confirm that the job market is weakening; even if the data looks good, it cannot cover up the fact that the economic performance in October is poor. No matter how you look at it, there is no advantage.

On the trading front, there are two key points to pay attention to: if new jobs exceed 100,000, the dollar may surge to 100; if it falls into negative territory, the stock market is likely to shake a bit. But to say it will completely change the interest rate cut expectations? Unless the data is explosively off the charts, it will just be short-term emotional fluctuations and won't make a big wave.

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