#BuyTheDipOrWaitNow?

$FIL ‌ ‌: Are we catching a falling knife or preparing a net for the bottom?📉

Hello everyone! Today, let's take a look at FIL/USDT, which has caught attention with its sharp movement. The price dropped to $1.774, losing more than 10% in a day. It looks tempting for a "buy on the dip," but is it really the case? Let's take a look at the indicators.

Arguments in favor of the "bottom" (Bear flags):

1. Extreme overselling: Our main "screaming" indicator is KDJ. The value of J has gone deep into the negative (-8.43), while K and D are in zones below 20. This is a classic signal that the selling may have been excessive.
2. Approaching the lower Bollinger Band: The price is literally just a couple of steps away from the lower band (LB) of the Bollinger Bands indicator (1.011), which often serves as a dynamic support level.
3. RSI on the edge: RSI(6) is around 32.5, which is not yet the oversold zone (<30), but very close to it.

Arguments "stop, dangerous!" (Wait ):

1. Momentum is still negative: The MACD indicator is below zero, and the histogram (-0.051) shows that the bearish momentum is not exhausted yet. It is premature to expect a sharp rebound until the MACD reverses.
2. No divergence: The decline is confirmed by oscillators. There is no clear divergence, for example, when the price makes a new low, but the RSI does not. This could be a strong reversal signal, but it is not present yet.
3. Price hits lows: Simple rule: don't try to catch a falling knife. As long as the price continues to set new lows (24h Low = 1.768), it's hard to say exactly where this "bottom" is.

The conclusion and my strategy:

The current picture is a classic struggle between "overbought" and "negative momentum".

· For aggressive traders: A small trial position in the $1.77 - $1.78 range can be considered, viewing it as the first lot in a grid of orders. However, the stop-loss should be strict, below the current low.
· For conservative ( and, in my opinion, more reasonable ): It is better to wait for confirmation of the reversal. What signals will there be?
1. A rebound and consolidation above the psychological mark of $1.80.
2. Formation of bullish divergence on MACD or RSI.
3. The reversal and crossing of the KDJ lines upwards from the oversold zone.

Conclusion: The temptation to buy FIL at such a price is strong, but the risk is still high. Right now, the market is saying more "wait" than "buy." I would adopt a wait-and-see position and monitor for stronger entry signals.

What do you think? Has FIL already exhausted itself or is it just a pause before a new drop?

⚠️Important: This post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and manage your risks.