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Monad Public Sale Prediction: 300 million is stable, but only a 40% chance for 600 million?

[Block Rhythm] I took a look at the market data on Polymarket regarding the public sale of Monad, and it's quite interesting.

The probability of betting on the public sale reaching 300 million USD is as high as 93%, which is basically a done deal. The 400 million USD level has an 83% win rate, and it seems that the market confidence is quite strong.

However, at the level of 600 million dollars, the probability drops to 40% - it's a fifty-fifty situation.

To be honest, you can see some insights from this probability distribution: everyone thinks Monad can definitely raise a lot of money, but there is some hesitation about whether it can reach a super high valuation. After all, the public chain track is currently highly competitive; just making promises is not enough, actual implementation capability is what matters.

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GetRichLeekvip
· 17h ago
I bet five thousand on that 600 million threshold, and now seeing a leap from 93% to 40%, I feel like I'm going to be trapped. It's a typical market maker Accumulation trap.
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DegenWhisperervip
· 17h ago
600 million that odds half and half, this is the market speaking the truth. Monad is amazing but still has to deliver.
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TopBuyerForevervip
· 17h ago
This probability of 600 million is indeed disappointing; it seems everyone knows that public chains are too competitive.
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DeFiCaffeinatorvip
· 17h ago
600 million and still half-half betting shows that everyone is as clear as a mirror, the public chain is too competitive, and Monad, no matter how amazing, must speak with actual products.
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LiquidatedNotStirredvip
· 17h ago
The hurdle of 600 million, it seems everyone is aware of it. No matter how tempting the pie in the sky is, it still has to be grounded.
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0xDreamChaservip
· 17h ago
The probability of 600 million is really real. To put it bluntly, it still depends on whether Monad can actually produce something. Just merging money is useless.
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LightningAllInHerovip
· 17h ago
I'm not very confident in this 600 million gamble; public chains are too competitive right now. We'll just have to see if Monad can really deliver.
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