Daily Analysis for #ETH

1️⃣ Structural interpretation of the rebound is empty, but we cannot blindly short. Around 3000, there will be quite a few people trying to catch the bottom. Be patient and wait for them to stop daring to buy the dip, or for the liquidations to be nearly over, while we study the matter of going long.
2️⃣ Capital Flow & On-chain & Exchange Dynamic Capital Flow: There is immense pressure on the funding side. The spot Ethereum ETF is also experiencing a large-scale outflow of funds. This is similar to the situation in the Bitcoin market, indicating that institutional investors are fully withdrawing from the cryptocurrency market. On-chain data: Long-term holders are also accelerating their exit. On-chain data shows that long-term holders of ETH are selling their tokens, creating additional market supply pressure. Exchange dynamics: Divergence in the views of whales. Despite facing significant selling pressure, data shows that some large addresses (whales) have been accumulating during the market downturn. This indicates a significant divergence between bulls and bears at the current position.
3️⃣ Be cautious about day trading and bottom-fishing. Currently, all medium-term cycles are in a bearish trend, and it is absolutely inadvisable for us to bottom-fish right now. If today’s market rebounds again to the position where we shorted last night, we will continue to attempt a short position.
4️⃣ Risk Warning Liquidation Leverage Risk: The ETH derivatives market has high leverage, and if prices continue to decline, it may trigger a chain liquidation, resulting in a "long squeeze" and sharply amplifying the decline. Market Correlation Risk: The trend of ETH is highly correlated with BTC. If the BTC leader cannot stop the decline and continues to fall, the $3000 defense line of ETH will face immense pressure and is likely to be breached. Ecosystem Confidence Risk: Continuous declines may affect the confidence of developers and users in the Ethereum ecosystem. If it leads to a shrinkage in on-chain activity, it will, in turn, weaken its fundamentals and value support.