#美国终止政府关闭 🔍 What's happening in the market?

The U.S. government shutdown has been temporarily lifted, yet the stock market and the cryptocurrency sphere have not risen but instead fallen. This operation has slapped many faces—people thought that once the crisis was over, there would be a rebound, but the market has voted with its feet, indicating that the issues are far from simple.

My opinion is quite straightforward: this is not a technical correction of "good news fully priced in," but an inevitable reaction of risk assets facing a political mess. The market has awakened from its "false sense of security" and is now focused not on whether the crisis has been resolved, but on whether the fundamentals can still hold up. In this situation, managing position sizes is much more important than trying to guess the top or bottom. Only by identifying those assets that have been wrongfully punished by emotions can one carve out a path.

📊 Why did good news lead to a drop instead? Three reasons:

1️⃣ The problem is not solved, it is only postponed.
The agreement has postponed the deadline to January 30 next year, and the fiscal differences have not been resolved. The market is most afraid of this kind of "procrastination" — the uncertainty premium has not decreased at all, and investors are certainly voting with their feet.

2️⃣ Restoring confidence takes time
The shutdown lasted more than 40 days, and the damage to both the consumer end and the enterprise end is real. This kind of impact has a lagging effect; it's not something that can be immediately restored just by reopening the doors.

3️⃣ High-risk assets retreating
AI concept stocks lead the decline (like Nvidia and Google), institutional funds are withdrawing. The stock market is like this; can high-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies stand aside? Thinking too much.