Daily Analysis of #BTC

1️⃣ Structural interpretation: The short-term structure is very fragile, and the $100,000 level is the "lifeline" in the recent period. The market needs to digest panic emotions and selling pressure through fluctuations in order to regain confidence, but I have a premonition that the $100,000 threshold may not hold. Be cautious when buying.
2️⃣ Capital Flow & On-chain & Exchange Dynamic Capital Flow (Market "Blood Transfusion" Situation): Institutional funds are showing a trend of outflow. Data shows that Fidelity's spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of approximately $132.9 million on November 13. This partially reflects a cautious attitude from some institutional investors in the short term. On-chain data (Large Holder "Bottom Card" Trends): Short-term holders are one of the main sources of recent selling pressure. Data indicates an increase in the amount of Bitcoin flowing into exchanges, with Binance's average daily Bitcoin inflow reaching 7,500 coins. Many short-term holders have a cost basis around $112,000, and as the current price is below their cost, some of them choose to sell at a loss, exacerbating market volatility. Exchange Dynamics (Market "Sentiment" Thermometer): High-leverage long positions are facing a new round of liquidation. In the past 4 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $213 million, of which long liquidations accounted for $195 million, making up the majority. This indicates that during the decline, funds chasing the rise with high leverage suffered the most significant losses.
3️⃣ The intraday trading strategy primarily focuses on defense, observing changes quietly. The faster the market is swept, the closer it is to the end. If the price rebounds to the $105,000 area and shows hesitation, lack of upward momentum, and forms bearish engulfing or dark cloud cover candlestick patterns, consider lightly shorting with a stop loss: temporarily exit if the first resistance zone is broken and wait for observation, then re-enter at the second resistance zone.
4️⃣ Risk Warning Psychological Barrier Breach Risk: The $100,000 mark is critical. If it breaks down with significant volume, it will severely undermine market confidence, potentially triggering programmed sell-offs and long position stop-losses, leading to accelerated price declines and further testing the support area between $91,500 and $95,300. High Leverage Liquidation Risk: Market volatility remains very high, with over $200 million in leverage already liquidated. If prices experience another sharp one-sided fluctuation, the remaining leveraged positions may continue to be cleared, resulting in a "long squeeze" or "short squeeze" scenario, amplifying short-term volatility. Emotional Sell-off Risk: The market fear index has reached the "extreme fear" level. Under extreme emotions, investors are prone to make irrational decisions, leading to panic selling, which in turn triggers unexpected price drops.