#ETH Intraday Analysis

1️⃣ Structural interpretation suggests that ETH's selling pressure appears slightly larger than BTC's at a glance. In the short term, focus on 3355-3375.
2️⃣ Capital flow & on-chain & exchange dynamics (market "blood transfusion" situation): Institutional investors and large holders show signs of active accumulation. On one hand, Republic Technologies raised $100 million through bond issuance, with over 90% allocated to purchasing ETH; on the other hand, a well-known large holder has been continuously increasing their position recently, accumulating a total of 54,742 ETH, worth approximately $193 million. This provides support for large holdings. On-chain data (large holders' "cards" movement): On-chain collateral lending activity is active. Large institutions have collateralized 78,444 ETH on Aave and borrowed assets worth about $156 million for leveraged long positions. This indicates some investors' recognition of ETH's medium- to long-term value but also increases potential market volatility risks. Exchange dynamics (market "sentiment" thermometer): Speculative activity in the futures market has significantly cooled down. ETH's total open interest in the derivatives market has decreased by 5.87% in the past 24 hours, currently totaling approximately $38.89 billion. A decline in open interest usually means some speculative funds are exiting after a price drop, potentially reducing volatility.
3️⃣ Intraday trading ideas: 3355-3375 is a zone where we can consider going long. If a solid bullish candlestick pattern appears (such as Morning Star or Bullish Engulfing), consider a light long position. For shorts, consider entering around 3540-3590. If the price rebounds near this zone and shows signs of weakness (such as consecutive small bodies or long upper shadows), it confirms a weak market structure, and you can consider shorting lightly on rallies.
4️⃣ Risk warnings:
High volatility risk: ETH's intraday price swings are usually larger than BTC's. In the current correction pattern, this means it could fall further and rebound with more volatility, posing significant challenges for position management and stop-loss placement. Leverage chain risk: Large-scale collateralized lending and leveraged longs on-chain are a "double-edged sword." If prices fall unexpectedly, it may trigger liquidations of these positions, causing a "deleveraging" cascade and amplifying the decline. Market correlation risk: ETH's movement is highly correlated with BTC. If BTC breaks below the key support of $101,500, ETH will likely struggle to stay afloat, and its decline could be magnified.