Recently, there has been remarkable news from the U.S. job market. The latest employment report released by ADP shows that over the past four weeks, the U.S. has added an average of 14,000 jobs per week, totaling 57,000 job opportunities. This data far exceeds the Fed's previous estimate that adding 30,000 jobs per month would be sufficient to maintain economic stability.

This report from a private institution was released before the official employment data was announced, undoubtedly providing important reference for the market. Such strong employment data could impact Fed Chairman Powell's planned interest rate cut in December. If the Fed changes its stance and opts for a wait-and-see approach, the market may experience volatility, which is seen as a typical 'hawkish surprise'.

It is worth noting that even Waller, the most supportive governor of interest rate cuts within the Fed, stated that while he supports rate cuts, they should be implemented gradually. This attitude reflects the cautious position of decision-makers when faced with strong economic data.

For ordinary investors, there are currently two key aspects to focus on: whether the Fed will cut interest rates in December and the wording and tone of Powell's future speeches. If Powell indicates that the economic situation is good and there is no urgency to cut interest rates, it may lead to a short-term correction in interest rate-sensitive assets such as stocks and gold. Conversely, if he indicates that further observation is needed, the market may remain relatively stable.

In this case, investors should not overinterpret ADP data, nor should they act hastily due to the possibility of the Fed changing its stance. It is important to recognize that economic decisions are based on the overall economic situation, not just on a single piece of data. The market is currently in a 'signal volatility period', and investors holding positions may consider moderately reducing high-risk positions while keeping some cash on hand for clearer signals. For those with no positions, it is advisable to wait until the Fed's stance is clearer before making decisions.

Whether the Fed will cut interest rates in December, whether to fully trust ADP data, or wait for official reports, these issues remain controversial. The future direction of the Fed's decisions will continue to affect market nerves, and investors need to remain vigilant, paying attention to changes in economic indicators and policy signals.